European Central Bank released hawkish comments,dollar index (DXY) fell on Monday (23rd), weakening for four consecutive trading days,EURstrengthen.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting is coming next week. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed’s megaphone,” recently pointed out that the Fed will try to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes and discuss the conditions for pausing interest rate hikes this year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday she believed inflation was falling overall and the U.S. labor market remained very tight.
At present, the market has almost ruled out any possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 2 yards next month, and has lowered the terminal interest rate expectation to around 4.75% to 5.0%, although the Fed expects the terminal interest rate to rise above 5%.
In late New York trading, ICE tracks the dollar against six major currencies dollar index (DXY) rose 0.8 percent to around 102.
Convera senior market analyst Joe Manimbo pointed out that at least in the current cycle, the market believes that the Fed’s most hawkish days are over, and investors are betting that the Fed will raise interest rates more slowly than other major central banks.dollar indexrelatively disadvantaged.
Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB, said that if the recent US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is to be believed, US inflation is expected to fall further and faster than the Fed forecast. In this case, the dollar has further room to fall this year.
However, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), an American investment bank, judged that the market is underestimating the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates. In the 4.5-5.5% range, the Fed would need to see further improvement in inflation before considering any sort of shift.
The impact of the European Central Bank’s hawkish optimism,EURagainst the dollarIt rose further, reaching as high as $1.0927, the highest since April last year, before paring gains to edge up 0.05% to $1. EURConvert to $1.1559.
Peter Kazimir, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, said on Monday that slowing inflation is good news, but this is not a reason to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. It is expected that interest rates will need to be raised by 2 yards each in the next two meetings. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated on the same day that the European Central Bank will continue to accelerate interest rate hikes in order to slow down inflation that is still too high.
Jane Foley, head of currency strategy at Rabobank, said lower natural gas prices and easing recession fears took away at least a lot of the pessimism, as well.EUROne of the factors for a stronger market outlook.
Following last week’s wild swings,JPYagainst the dollarDepreciated by 0.83% to about 130.67 against the US dollar JPY, failed to break through the 21-day moving average. The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting in December last year on Monday. Some central bank members pointed out that the Bank of Japan must reiterate and clearly explain that expanding the range of fluctuations in bond yields is not intended to exit the ultra-loose policy. One of the central bank members said that adjusting the policy target is not Suitable.
Analysts believe the Bank of Japan’s policy will continue at least until its March meeting, but one uncertainty is that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will appoint a new Bank of Japan governor in February, which could lead to a change in policy.
The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate meeting decision on Wednesday.Canadian DollarsInched up to 1.3354 against the dollar Canadian dollaranalysts at TD Securities expect the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates by 1 yard to 4.5%, but do not rule out the possibility of future interest rate hikes.Canadian DollarsMay be more sensitive to dovish signals.
investors get rid ofcryptocurrencyPessimism after exchange FTX bankruptcy,bitcoin (BTC) After consolidating early Monday, it briefly hit a one-day high of $23,158 before falling back to around $22,980.47, up 0.85%.
Prices as of 9:00 a.m. Taiwan time on Tuesday (28th):
- dollar indexCall 101.9781. – 0.0452%
- EURExchange rate against US dollar (EUR/USD) 1 EURConvert to $1.0874. +0.0276%
- GBPExchange rate against USD (GBP/USD) 1 GBPConvert to $1.2378. +0.0081%
- Australian dollarExchange rate against USD (USD/AUD) 1 Australian dollarConvert to $0.7031. +0.0427%
- US dollar againstCanadian DollarsExchange rate (USD/CAD) quoted 1 US dollar to 1.3366 Canadian Dollars。0%
- US dollar againstJPY (USD/JPY) The exchange rate quoted is 1 US dollar to 130.3500 JPY。-0.2525%