Following the failure of the first round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and other countries have tightened sanctions on Russia, risk aversion has enveloped the global market, bond prices have soared, and international oil prices have risen sharply. U.S. stocks opened flat on Tuesday (1st). At the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 83.76 points, or 0.25%, the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.15%, the S&P 500 was down 0.11% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was down 0.46%.
The first round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on the Belarusian border has ended. The two parties that have not yet returned to negotiate with each other and are preparing for the second negotiation; Ukrainian President Zelensky has officially signed the application for joining the European Union, and Russia has referred to the negotiation conditions. One is the return of Ukraine to a neutral country.
At the time of the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, it seems that Russia has not stopped attacking Ukraine, and continues to invest a lot of military forces in Ukraine. Regarding economic sanctions against Russia, the European Union is discussing expelling seven Russian banks from the SWIFT system, including VTB Bank and Bank Rossiya, but the list may be adjusted.
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues, and investors have high risk aversion. The US 10-year bond yield fell to 1.7770%. In addition, the conflict between the two countries also raised concerns about the shortage of crude oil supply. West Texas crude oil soared above 100 per barrel again on Tuesday. DollarMark, hit the highest since July 2014, West Texas crude oil rose 5.63% to 101.11 a barrel by press time DollarBrent crude fell slightly 0.07% to 100.92 a barrel Dollar。
In terms of digital assets, affected by the war between the two countries, thecryptocurrencyDemand has climbed, according to CoinGecko data before the deadline, Bitcoin rose 12.7% in 24 hours to 44,296.93 Dollar、etherup 10.7% at 3,007.49 Dollar。
In addition, the Federal Reserve’s process of ending easy monetary policy is facing an unexpected test as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine poses new economic and financial risks to global markets. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reduced traders’ forecast for a 50 basis point rate hike on March 16 to just 8.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday (28th) that he supports the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March. If the inflation data deteriorates, the rate hike may reach 50 basis points.
As of 22:00 on Tuesday (1st) Taipei time:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 83.76 points, or 0.25%, to 33,808.84
- The Nasdaq Composite fell 20.12 points, or 0.15%, to end at 13,731.28
- The S&P 500 fell 4.63 points, or 0.11%, to 43,69.31
- Feihan fell 15.65 points or 0.46% to temporarily report 3,413.88 points
- TSMC ADR rose 2.84% to 110.04 per share Dollar
- 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 1.7770%
- New York Light crude oil rose 5.63% to 101.11 a barrel Dollar
- Brent crude fell 0.07% to 100.92 a barrel Dollar
- Gold rose 1.05% to 1,920.60 an ounce Dollar
- DollarIndex rose to 97.11
Stocks in focus:
Target(TGT-US) rose 12.71% to 225.17 per share in early trade Dollar
As consumers continue to purchase clothing and food in an inflationary environment, Target reported strong results and excellent financial forecasts in the fourth quarter of last year, with Q4 adjusted earnings per share of 3.19 Dollarfar exceeding the market forecast of 2.88 DollarQ4 revenue reported 30.99 billionDollarslightly lower than the market forecast of 31.16 billionDollar。
Target sees 2022 EPS growth of “high single-digit percentage” to 14.64 per share Dollarhigher than the market consensus of 13.31 per share Dollar。
Kohl’s (KSS-US) rose 6.83% to 59.42 per share in early trade Dollar
Kohl’s announced its fourth-quarter earnings before the market, with Q4 revenue of 6.22 billion due to continued supply chain disruptions that disrupted sales and inventory during the shopping season at the end of last yearDollarlower than market expectations of 6.54 billionDollarbut Q4 adjusted EPS of 2.20 Dollarbetter than the expected 2.12 Dollar。
The company expects fiscal 2022 net sales to grow 2% to 3%, compared with analysts’ average forecast of 2.2% growth, and earnings per share excluding one-time items at 7.00 Dollarto 7.50 Dollarbetween, while analysts were expecting 6.55 per share Dollar。
Lucid(LCID-US) fell 18.89% to 23.50 per share in early trade Dollar
Electric vehicle startup Lucid’s fourth-quarter net loss tripled from a year ago to 1.05 billionDollarQ4 loss per share was 0.64 Dollarmuch higher than the market’s estimated loss of 0.35 Dollarand the company missed its delivery target, delivering 125 Lucid Air sedans in the quarter, down from more than 500 originally scheduled, and slashing its 2022 production target by 40% due to supply chain issues.
Today’s key economic data:
- The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in February was 57.3, expected to be 57.5, and the previous value of 57.5
- US February ISM manufacturing index reported 58.6, expected 58, the previous value of 57.6
Wall Street Analysis:
Tracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation strategy at Wells Fargo, said there will be more upside in inflation with additional pressure on energy prices from the Russian invasion, and said there is a good chance the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points in March. Possibly, it is also expected to raise interest rates four times by 25 basis points each time in 2022.
Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said that the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine clearly cast a shadow over the market, but the important driving factor will be the response of governments and central banks in terms of policy settings. The market will continue to observe high energy prices and effects of inflation.
Andy Kapyrin, co-chief investment officer at Regentatlantic Capital LLC, said there will be more volatility in the stock market in the coming weeks, and the potential for bigger losses, but it’s a buy point to enter the dip because most geographies Political crises are resolved relatively quickly.