2023-11-07 09:21:31
The scenarios
What will happen to Gaza after the war?
The Israeli military operation against Gaza is likely to last for months. But what happens afterwards? Who will ensure security and reconstruction in the coastal strip? The scenarios at a glance.
Published7. November 2023, 10:21
People flee after Israeli airstrikes on a neighborhood in al-Maghazi refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip on November 6, 2023.
Plumes of smoke after an Israeli attack in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on November 6, during ongoing fighting between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. Thousands of people have died on both sides since October 7th.
An Israeli soldier arranges artillery shells at a position near the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel.
Israel’s military operation is likely to last for months. In the picture: Israeli soldiers practice urban warfare in the Negev desert.
Palestinian Civil Defense personnel search for survivors after an Israeli airstrike on Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip.
Mohammed Talatene/dpa
Palestinians gather in Nablus in the West Bank on November 6 to support journalists working in the Gaza Strip.
A woman remembers the Israelis kidnapped by Hamas in Jerusalem.
REUTERS
Israel has declared a state of war since the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7th.
The government has completely sealed off Gaza and is carrying out massive airstrikes.
The goal is to destroy Hamas. The military operation is likely to last for months.
According to Defense Minister Joaw Galant, a “new security regime will then be established”.
But what exactly should this look like? Who will control and govern the coastal strip in the future?
“We need a vision of what the future can look like for the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip,” says David Petraeus, former CIA director and US Army general. Politics still seems a long way from that.
But there are initial scenarios for a possible future for Gaza. An overview including feasibility.
1. Aggravated pre-war situation: closure of Gaza
The border too Israel will be secured much more tightly and the lockdown of the Gaza Strip continued even more rigorously. Hamas is significantly weakened, but could not be “wiped out” as Israel wanted. There is no more import or export. The supplies for the people come solely from Egypt and are completely dependent on the international community. Rebuilding Gaza is impossible.
Probability: low
The Israeli army is unlikely to be able to completely defeat Hamas: not only does it have major military advantages in Gaza, but it also has strong social roots in society (it runs schools, hospitals, etc.). Nevertheless, observers largely rule out this scenario, especially since it does not offer stability and is likely to lead to new violence. Gaza would be separated from the West Bank – and a two-state settlement like the US wants would definitely be impossible.
2. New Nakba: Expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza
This is the worst case or Nakba (Arabic for catastrophe) for the Palestinians: the expulsion of the Palestinians against the background of the founding of the Israeli state and the Israeli-Palestinian war of 1948. It is clear to many Palestinians and Arab states that Israel is aiming for this , as Israel has urged Palestinian civilians to flee northern Gaza ahead of the ground operation. Those who remain now belong to Hamas, according to the Israeli right. But many civilians are too sick, injured or too poor to flee. Makeshift tent camps are already being set up in the southern part of the Gaza Strip, without there being a guarantee for people to return to Gaza.
Probability: low
Arab states have made it clear that they will not accept Palestinian refugees and thereby encourage expulsion. If the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip continues to worsen, there are fears of a mass rush to the border crossing with Egypt and refugee camps in the unstable Sinai. A further influx of refugees into Europe would be the foreseeable consequence.
3. UN troops and administration
International troops ensure security. In the long term, the states that provide the troops are initiating the transfer of control to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Probability: low
This would require a resolution from the UN Security Council – which all observers actually rule out given the blockade between the veto powers USA on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. Israel would resist a takeover by the PA, especially under the current right-wing conservative government.
4. Interim troops from regional states and opening of Gaza
Following on from the third scenario, there is also the possibility of a coalition of Arab states. A coalition of Arab states is acting as an interim force in Gaza with support from the USA, the EU and the UN. Israel’s neighbors Egypt and Jordan, but also Qatar and those states that have normalized their relations with Israel as part of the so-called “Abraham Accords” would be particularly eligible. Saudi Arabia could also play a prominent role.
Probability: medium
“I can imagine that Egyptian, Jordanian and Saudi soldiers, together with the international community, will control the region during a transition period and that the Emirates and the Saudis will provide a huge amount of money for reconstruction,” said Ami Ayalon, former head of the Israeli domestic secret service Shin Bet. However, the Arab states’ willingness to cooperate dwindles the longer the Israeli campaign lasts. Qatar would have to influence remaining Hamas cadres, Egypt would have to stop arms deliveries and structures of the militant groups (tunnels).
“Responsibility for security for an indefinite period of time”
Netanyahu
Israel will retain responsibility for security in the Gaza Strip indefinitely, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We have seen what happens when we don’t have them,” Netanyahu said in an interview with US broadcaster ABC when asked who would govern the area after the end of the Gaza war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas organization should.
“If we don’t have control over security, Hamas’ terror will erupt on a scale we cannot imagine,” Netanyahu said. He ruled out a longer ceasefire in the Gaza Strip for the time being. “Without the release of the hostages, there will be no general ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.”
At a meeting in the Japanese capital Tokyo, the G7 foreign ministers also want to discuss the future of the Gaza Strip after the end of the war. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said before departure that Tokyo would “also be about thinking beyond the day, for example discussing practical steps towards a two-state solution”. (DPA)
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