2023-10-15 15:49:14
After its examination in committee, the finance bill for 2024 will be presented to all deputies from Tuesday. The government could use article 49.3 ten times to pass the state budget and that of Social Security.
The budgetary marathon begins Tuesday in the Assembly hemicycle with tough battles in perspective on housing, purchasing power and “superprofits”, which should be cut short, as in 2022, by the constitutional weapon of 49.3 .
In the absence of an absolute majority at the Palais Bourbon, “there will be a 49.3” to have the 2024 finance bill (PLF) adopted without a vote, agreed the Minister of Public Accounts Thomas Cazenave, who will defend his first budget . In total, the government should use this tool around ten times to pass the State budget (PLF) and that of Social Security (PLFSS) before Christmas, with the possibility of retaining or rejecting the amendments of his choice.
The oppositions will be able to respond with motions of censure, with very slim chances of success as long as the LR do not join in. Tuesday evening, the deputies will tackle the first part of the PLF, devoted to state revenue.
Tensions on housing
They had a taste of the battles to come during the examination in the Finance Committee, marked by a series of setbacks for the Macronists and a rejection of the text, which could encourage Élisabeth Borne to draw 49.3 more quickly than expected.
“It rather smacks of (triggering) early,” said a Renaissance source on Friday in view of the disappointments in committee.
Among the sensitive points of the 2024 budget, housing figures prominently. Many elected officials, including those in the presidential camp, are alarmed by a “social bomb”, between the cost of rentals and the mounting difficulties in accessing real estate loans, as interest rates are so high.
To revitalize the sector, Thomas Cazenave indicated that certain proposals from the allies of the presidential camp, MoDem and Horizons, will be retained, such as the reduction from 71% to 50% of the reduction on income from furnished tourist accommodation (Airbnb type), then that many coastal towns complain about the lack of available housing, due to the explosion of short-term rentals. Insufficient for the left which would like to attack this “Airbnb tax niche” more strongly.
The MoDem, certain Renaissance and the oppositions are also putting pressure on to prevent the government from refocusing the “zero interest loan” system in “tense areas”. “This will still prevent a certain number of people from acquiring” housing, believes LR Véronique Louwagie.
Superprofits still on the table
Another big piece, the left wants to return to the charge on “tax justice”, by calling for taxing the “superprofits” of large companies. Left-wing elected officials readily support the proposals of the head of the MoDem group Jean-Paul Mattei, who last year called for a tax on “superdividends” and this year calls for an increase in taxation during buyouts by the largest companies. of their own actions.
“Comrade Mattei says superdividends. We take it!”, smiles the rebellious Hadrien Clouet.
But the government is attached to its pro-business “offer” policy, and rejected the amendment on superdividends last year, despite its adoption in the chamber.
On the other hand, he could support the proposal of the general budget rapporteur Jean-René Cazeneuve (Renaissance) to renew for one year the solidarity contribution on the profits of energy companies.
Towards a budget deficit below 3% in 2027
At the PS, Christine Pirès Beaune will resume her standoff over the care of people in nursing homes, after success in committee. She asks to replace a tax reduction with a tax credit, accessible to the most modest.
But the amendments “breaking the balance” of the budget will not be accepted, Thomas Cazenave has already warned, keen to present to the European Commission and the rating agencies a “serious trajectory” of returning the public deficit below 3% of GDP in 2027 (2.7%), with a step to 4.4% from 2024.
The government is on a crest between its promises of the economy, investments in the ecological transition, fuel allowances and an increase in the number of civil servants. Its growth forecast, of 1.4% of GDP in 2024, is also considered “high” by the High Council of Public Finances.
The Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire wanted one billion euros of additional savings to be included in the 2024 budget “at the end of the parliamentary work”, beyond the approximately 16 billion planned by the government text .
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