The Grand Ipsos Barometer: Public Opinion in Wallonia, Flanders, and Brussels

2024-03-22 18:00:00

The new edition of our Grand Ipsos Barometer-The evening-RTL-VTM-The last news shows public opinion in the three regions of the country.

In Wallonia, the Engaged at 16.8%

The new edition of our Grand Ipsos Barometer-The evening-RTL-VTM-The last news confirms the rebirth of the Engagés (16.8%), which gained three percentage points compared to the last survey in December. Maxime Prévot’s party now constitutes the third French-speaking political force, ahead of the PTB (14.9%), but behind the PS (21.3%), still in the lead although it suffered a famous decline of 2.6 points of percentage, and the MR (20.5%) which continues to nibble (0.5 percentage point) and which does not seem to have tired the respondents by the saga of the preparation of its electoral lists. The progress of the Engagés is therefore to the detriment of the left forces since in addition to the decline of the PS, this Grand Barometer also reveals the decline of Ecolo (11.9%) which, since September and the Pfas pollution, has lost three percentage points.

As for the Walloons’ favorite personalities, no change since the leading trio remains the same, with the former Prime Minister, Sophie Wilmès in the lead, just ahead of her successor, Alexander De Croo, and the president of the Socialist Party, Paul Magnette . The role of Prime Minister pays since 57% of respondents have a favorable opinion of Sophie Wilmès and 54% of Alexander De Croo.

In Flanders, Vlaams Belang alone in the lead

With 27.4% of the vote (+2.3 percentage points), the far-right party clearly outdistances the N-VA, which stands at 20.4% (-1.6 percentage points). Behind, still mired in its crisis linked to the departure of its president Conner Rousseau against a backdrop of racist remarks, Vooruit lost third place to the benefit of the CD&V, in good shape. The PTB (called PVDA in Flanders) remains the fifth party in Flanders, stable in our survey. Raoul Hedebouw’s party is therefore ahead of two parties in the Vivaldi coalition: the Open VLD and Groen. The party of Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, despite a slight rebound, is still very low, and far from its 2019 electoral score.

Also read The cynical strategy of Bart De Wever

In terms of personalities, Bart De Wever is still well ahead. The top 3 is completed by Flemish Minister of Employment Hilde Crevits (CD&V), tied with Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (Open VLD).

The MR takes the lead in Brussels

The MR regains first place in Brussels, and comfortably. With 21.8% of voting intentions, it is 3.7 percentage points better than the December Ipsos poll, and 4.3 better than in the May 2019 elections. The PTB loses its short-lived first place and, with 17.5% of voting intentions, is 4.3 percentage points behind the blues. The MR’s advance is therefore significant. Behind, we find the PS (15.4%), Ecolo (14.7%), Défi (8.8%) and Les Engagés (6.9%).

Also read “Why do party presidents have all the power to establish the list and order of candidates? »

The socialists do not find their tone after years in power, their personalities do not stand out; the Greens have a concern for popularity; the amaranths are weighed down by very current internal quarrels; As for the Engagés, with a very promising poll in Wallonia, they are struggling as expected in Brussels, undoubtedly a problem of lists and leadership. In Brussels, as in Wallonia, Sophie Wilmès remains the most popular, ahead of Alexander De Croo and Paul Magnette.

Methodology

Ipsos survey carried out online from March 11 to 18, 2024 among 2,600 respondents, forming representative samples of Belgians aged 18 and over at the rate of 1,000 in Wallonia, 1,000 in Flanders and 600 in the 19 municipalities of the Brussels-Capital Region. The maximum margin of error, for a percentage of 50% and a confidence rate of 95%, is +-3.1 in Wallonia, +-3.1 in Flanders and +-4.0 in Brussels.