The Guardian – On Pope’s wish for Ukraine to surrender: It would give Russia the green light for endless war

Pope Francis’ proposal for Ukraine to “dare” to raise a “white flag” and negotiate an agreement with Russia (in other words, surrender to it) deeply shocked Kyiv and its supporters. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, understandably indignant, responded that the only flag Kyiv would fly was its own: the yellow-blue flag of Ukraine.

“Some may think that the Pope’s words are irrelevant to the course of this war. This is not the first time that Pope Francis has openly displayed pro-Russian sympathies, and Vatican mediation, for example on the release of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia, has so far been unsuccessful. So what will happen if the Pope speaks about the war again, considering that his views are already known, and practical efforts to address the humanitarian aspects of the war have failed?” – asks the commentator.

“Nevertheless, the Pope’s words are extremely relevant and dangerous. First, they provide moral cover for a decidedly pro-Kremlin attitude that is deeply entrenched in some quarters of the West, from Donald Trump’s Republicans in the US to the nationalist right and populist left in Europe, and almost mainstream in countries like my native Italy. The claim that the war can only end if Ukraine surrenders is exactly what Vladimir Putin has been preaching for more than two years. “The fact that a religious institution like the Vatican follows the same line provides incredible political ammunition for the Kremlin and its supporters in Europe and beyond,” says the Guardian journalist.

“Secondly, the Pope’s words are important because they reflect the views of the Global South. In fact, the Pope does not express pro-Russian sentiments, but deep-rooted anti-Westernism. As a result, his interpretation of the war, which emphasizes the presumed guilt of NATO and the agenda of the Western war industry, is tainted. The West’s inability to make its case persuasively in the Global South is its problem, especially since the opinions and voices of the South are increasingly important in today’s international relations. This problem has been greatly aggravated by the reluctance of the United States and Europe to stop Israel’s catastrophic war in Gaza,” observes the reviewer.

Precisely because the pope’s words matter, he said, it’s important to say why he’s wrong. “I think he’s wrong about the past, the present and, perhaps most importantly, the future.” By admitting and remaining silent, the Pope betrays his core beliefs about the causes of past war. Two years after the start of the invasion, Ukraine is now widely acknowledged to be facing problems at the front. Some might argue that the Pope’s call for surrender is driven by nothing but casual political realism (perhaps an odd theoretical tradition for a religious authority, but still) and that it is better to surrender now than to persevere in defeat.

But if the Pope is really following the principles of realism, why didn’t he call on Russia to surrender and withdraw when the first attempt to subjugate Ukraine failed and Ukraine regained about half of the territory it lost in the first few weeks of the invasion? When the Pope talks about Ukraine raising a white flag without mentioning Russia at all, he is actually perversely blaming Ukraine (and the West) for provoking Russia to war (for example, to join NATO) with complete disregard for imperial ambitions, which prompted the Kremlin to invade Ukraine. However, the past is the past, and probably nothing can change the deeply held beliefs about the reasons for the war. Those who, like the Pope, think that everything is the West’s fault will probably continue to think so, despite the evidence presented to the contrary,” says Nathalie Tocci.

“However, the pontiff’s mistakes are not limited to the causes of war alone. The current dynamics of the war, and especially the problems on the Ukrainian front, are due to the fact that the Western war industry, condemned by the Pope, has done too little, not too much. It is not the Western defense industry that is fueling the war, but Ukraine has recently suffered losses due to its lack of manpower and especially weapons to repel a Russian invasion. Europe’s defense industry was not built on a war footing (unlike Russia’s), and the US Congress still holds $60 billion in USD military aid to Kyiv as a hostage to internal political disputes,” the journalist emphasizes.

According to her, the outcome of the war, as the Pope hints, is not predetermined: if Ukraine loses, it is only because its artillery fire is less than last summer. While the West hesitates, Russia has replenished its military stockpile and North Korea has sent Moscow about 1.5 million. ammunition.

“Ukraine needs weapons not “only” to defend its front line, but also to protect the civilian population, which should be dear to the Pope. It is thanks to Western air defenses that Ukraine is able to protect its citizens and civilian infrastructure throughout the country from Russian drone and missile strikes. In addition, thanks to Western military capabilities, Ukraine pushed out about a third of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, ensuring that grain could continue to sail to the Global South, despite Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative last year,” the analyst notes.

Looking ahead, the pope assumes that Ukraine’s capitulation would end the war, possibly with a deal that would allow Russia to retain control of five illegally annexed regions of Ukraine and possibly a few more (such as Odesa). “Donald Trump would probably like such conditions. Of course, no one has a crystal ball. However, if Putin’s behavior in the past is any indication, there is no evidence that this would mean a stable end to the war,” says N. Tocci.

“The Pope forgets that this is not the first war that V. Putin is waging in Europe: in 2008 he fought in Sakartvel, and in 2014 – in Ukraine. Every time the West stepped aside and downplayed the Russian threat, Moscow came back and took a bigger bite. The Pope also ignores the strengthening of Russian military forces, which, according to European intelligence, could pose a direct threat to NATO in a few years.

In short, even if the Pope’s words were heeded and the West sacrificed Ukraine, all signals indicate that this would not help ensure peace in Europe. It is more likely that this would open the continent to an even more dangerous and deadly phase of this unjust war,” warns the observer.