2024-02-23 19:08:59
With Israel not yet announcing the date and details of the military invasion plan it threatens to take on the Palestinian city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, military experts are developing two scenarios for the invasion that, if completed, would undermine the ongoing truce talks.
The two scenarios are an invasion from the east or an invasion from the west. What distinguishes each of them from the other? Which one is most likely to be implemented? With experts confirming that both will cause a disaster among the Palestinians crowded in Rafah, whose number is estimated at 1.4 million people, including residents of the city and those displaced to it from the north, fleeing Israeli military operations there.
First scenario: invasion from the east
- It is similar to the scenario that Israel resorted to in its war on Gaza in 2014 after the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier, Hadar Goldin, which led to the displacement of half the population to the central and western regions, and the killing and wounding of hundreds.
- The ground advance from the east could lead to the complete evacuation of about 10 residential neighborhoods of residents and displaced persons, and the withdrawal of Abu Youssef Al-Najjar Hospital and the European Gaza Hospital, which are the two main hospitals in Rafah.
The other scenario: invasion from the west
- In it, tanks and vehicles move from the city of Khan Yunis, where the Israeli army is currently located, towards the Al-Mawasi area, reaching the heart of Rafah, after cutting off the road between the center and south of the Strip.
- This scenario threatens the lives of hundreds of thousands of displaced families in Al-Mawasi and the border areas in western Rafah, where they will face tanks and be exposed to either death, arrest or injury, especially since the area is crowded with displaced people from the northern Gaza Strip.
- To avoid these heavy losses, the Israeli army needs, before invading Rafah, to empty Al-Mawasi of the displaced people and move them to new areas, which will be very difficult in light of the continuing military operations in Khan Yunis and other areas in the Strip.
The most likely scenario
The military expert, Major General Youssef Al-Sharqawi, comments on these two scenarios that according to preliminary estimates, the Israeli army “does not have any plan to evacuate the displaced or deal with the huge amount of casualties that may result from its invasion of Rafah, and it also realizes the danger of ignoring international warnings of an invasion.” .
Regarding the scenario that is most likely to be implemented, Al-Sharqawi, speaking to Sky News Arabia, suggested that an invasion from the West would be what the Israelis prefer, based on these points:
- The Israeli army has avoided invading from the eastern side in various areas of the Gaza Strip since launching its ground operation last October, due to the military preparations of Hamas and the armed factions there, and its need to pressure the population in the central and western regions, as happened in 2014. Which means exposing them to disaster.
- As for the western side of Rafah, it is devoid of tunnels.
- The invasion from the west at the same time will force Israel to provide safe areas for the displaced, likely in the central regions and in Khan Yunis. Which means a partial Israeli military withdrawal, and a temporary cessation of some operations there.
- In my estimation, the ground invasion will begin from the Al-Mawasi area in the west after the evacuation of the displaced, and will be reinforced later from the eastern and central regions.
Developments in the truce talks
Amid their anxiety about the invasion, the people of Gaza are monitoring developments in the ongoing talks to reach a truce or long-term ceasefire.
Israeli TV Channel 12 said on Thursday that Tel Aviv will participate with a delegation led by the head of the Israeli intelligence service Mossad, David Barnea, in the ongoing talks in Paris regarding a possible agreement to release more than 100 hostages held by Hamas.
For its part, Hamas announced that the movement’s leadership delegation, headed by the head of the Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, concluded a visit to Egypt, which lasted several days, in the strongest indication that has appeared in weeks that negotiations are still continuing.
Talks failed two weeks ago when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected an offer from Hamas for a 4-and-a-half-month truce, in exchange for ending with Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel says it will not withdraw before eliminating the movement.
After the Gaza war
On Thursday, Netanyahu officially presented to the Political and Security Council the “Next Day” plan, which means the day after the cessation of the Israeli war on Gaza.
According to Israeli media, the proposal document stated:
- Establishing a security zone in the area adjacent to Israel inside the Gaza Strip as long as there is a security need for this.
- Israel controls the border between Gaza and Egypt, and works in cooperation with Egypt and with the assistance of the United States to prevent smuggling.
- Completely disarm the Gaza Strip, except for weapons necessary to maintain public order, and Israel will supervise the disarmament process.
- Israel’s control over the security of the entire region west of Jordan, including the Gaza Strip (land, sea, air, spectrum).
- The civil administration of the sector will be undertaken by local elements with administrative experience who are not linked to countries or entities that support “terrorism,” and will not receive money from them.
- Combating “terrorism” by eradicating extremist ideology from religious and educational institutions in Gaza.
- Closing the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and replacing it with other international agencies.
- Regarding reconstruction, it will not begin until disarmament and the eradication of extremism.
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