2023-04-16 13:59:58
When trying to evaluate the current policy of the United States towards Venezuela, different signs of incoherence can be identified that reflect the internal contradictions within the ruling elite of that country. Although there is a consensus around the objective of reinserting Venezuela into the geopolitical device led by Washington, there are divergences regarding the tactics that should be used for that purpose.
During the Donald Trump government, a strategy with bipartisan support was implemented that was not successful in the change of government. Despite this, the United States policy towards Venezuela continues to be trapped in the scheme of the Trump period and the same measures remain in force, without taking into account that each strategy requires adequate tools and that what is convenient for the overthrow of a president is not necessarily one for electoral politics.
Indecisions
So far, Washington has not yet taken the step of reestablishing diplomatic relations with Venezuela, even though the diplomatic fence of before no longer exists, since Europe and the countries of the region have normalized relations. On the other hand, Washington has continued to apply oil and financial sanctions both on the State and against PDVSA, which hinders economic recovery and political stability. In addition, the decision to put an end to the interim government was taken halfway since an “interim parliament” that facilitates the blocking of Venezuelan funds is still recognized. All these ambiguities are an expression of existing contradictions.
POSTPONEMENT
In the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, the White House teams began to adopt a new approach towards Venezuela under pressure from the effects of the conflict on the European economy due to the rise in oil and gas prices. To this has been added the change in the attitude of Saudi Arabia and the decisions of OPEC on cuts in production. These circumstances have forced the United States to open its own strategic reserves and to look for other alternative sources of energy.
CHEVRON
The licenses to Chevron to reactivate operations in the companies associated with PDVSA, together with the permission to Trinidad and Tobago to negotiate agreements on the Dragon field gas fulfill this function of guaranteeing and binding commitments. Currently, 15% of Venezuelan oil shipments are directed to various US locations.
These measures have been accompanied by some political agreements, such as the release of 3,000 million dollars for social care programs administered by the UN. However, in each of these steps, the tension between the internal currents in Washington can be noted. While the pragmatic factors seek to accelerate the movements, the ideological sectors put obstacles to the fulfillment of the agreements, either from the Department of State or from the OFAC.
ULTRACONSERVADORES
From a different perspective than the Biden team, the powerful Cuban-American lobby and other conservative forces are pushing for the United States to maintain an aggressive and hostile position toward Venezuela. The objective of these groups is to prevent the Biden administration from changing the course of US policy towards Latin America.
Although they do not hold the reins of power, these factors have enough influence to hinder the realization of a new policy. But it is also worth pointing out that this has been possible because the American progressive forces remain tied to their nation’s ideology of supremacy, even when an important part of society questions it.
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