The presidential campaign has begun, and with it the proliferation of polls… and their analytical biases. The survey presented here was carried out on a sample of 1,500 people, between the end of December and the beginning of January, by the MISgroup institute, for the association Common sense. It incorporates a category of voters that is usually never highlighted: the number of respondents who do not wish to answer the question: “Who are you going to vote for?”. In this survey, he presents 20.5% of respondents.
The results, taking this element into account, are as follows and are surprising compared to the surveys which usually report the percentages of voting intentions to confirmed voters: Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron are neck and neck with 14.3% voting intentions, followed by Eric Zemmour at 8.5%, in front of a “citizen candidate who would bring together all your ideas in a program” evaluated at 6.6%, followed closely by Valerie Pécresse at 6.5%, then Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 5.1%.
Note that 7% of those questioned intend to vote blank, and that 6.8% do not wish to vote. If this translates to the polls, compared to 2017, when abstention was record at 22.2%, it would be a great turnout return. It remains to be seen what the 20% of people who do not wish to answer for the moment will do. The campaign could be played on this fringe of the population that the candidates will have to conquer.
Major concerns identified
To decide, the French have dominant subjects of concern, on which they would like major changes: in the first place, their purchasing power at 72%. No wonder for this subject which had triggered the Yellow Vests crisis in 2018.
Then comes the subject of security at 59%, which corresponds to the program of several candidates at the top of the voting intentions, followed by justice at 53%, health at 51%, neck and neck with pensions.
Purchasing power, the future subject of the campaign?
To balance their daily budget and live peacefully, 19% of respondents would need an additional budget of 1,000 euros. For 44%, the additional budget needed would be 500 euros.
Will purchasing power remain the dominant subject of this campaign, which has so far been somewhat stifled by health issues?
Find the detailed results on the Bonsens website:
– Voting intentions in the presidential elections and evaluation of government actions
– Important topics (Part 2)
– Important topics (Part 3)