The recent meeting between Suleiman Franjieh, the leader of the Marada Movement, and the French was aimed at understanding Franjieh’s stance on crucial issues in Lebanon and the region. With Washington having withdrawn its mandate, the French have limited influence in the Lebanese presidential file, and their support or rejection of Franjieh’s candidacy now hinges on Saudi Arabia’s stance. While there are indications that Lebanon could be the second item on the agenda of “Iranian-Saudi” meetings and settlements after resolving the Yemeni file, it remains to be seen what will happen with Franjieh’s candidacy. Sources suggest that the French initially showed support for Franjieh, but withdrew it under pressure from Washington’s support of the Saudi Arabian position. It is believed that Franjieh may be part of a solution in exchange for supporting a prime minister proposed by Saudi Arabia. The discussions on the Lebanese settlement are expected to take place in June at the latest, and there are indications that Tammam Salam, Fouad Makhzoumi and Fouad Siniora are being considered to head the government. However, there are concerns over Siniora’s candidacy due to opposition from key parties in Lebanon. Hezbollah has also expressed reluctance to accept any other candidate than Franjieh for the presidency.
The meeting that brought together the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, with the French was nothing more than a reconnaissance tour of the man’s position on all controversial files in Lebanon and the region… In short, and with the recognition of figures close to the “Elysee”, these are the limits of the French in the Lebanese presidential file, after Washington withdrew the mandate What is given to them, by repositioning it on the issue of Franjieh’s candidacy, from support or non-objection, to rejection or approval of what Saudi Arabia agrees to.” Until now, and with the admission of key internal parties in the presidential file, Saudi Arabia still does not agree to move on with Franjieh… However, with the recognition of the same parties, it is expected that the Lebanese file will be the second on the agenda of “Iranian-Saudi” meetings and understandings after the Yemeni file is resolved.
In the details, as told by the sources, the French expressed their willingness to do everything necessary for Franjieh to arrive in Baabda, given that Washington was behind the scenes supporting the French endeavor, before Washington suddenly withdrew its support, and sent to the Elysee a clear message about Washington’s unwillingness to bypass Saudi Arabia. In this file, and that it supports any position it takes on the Lebanese presidential file, to repeat the praise of escalation at home against Franjieh, in a clear translation of the American coup against Paris and the well-known Saudi position in this file.
However, the same sources are betting that the detente in the Yemeni file will result in a presidential solution in Lebanon according to a Franjieh equation in exchange for any prime minister nominated by the Kingdom, and in this speech there is a clear recognition by the two for the first time that “the solution to the Franjieh complex is in the hands of Saudi Arabia,” and the literal translation of this The talk means the fall of the French initiative and what was said about a Qatari initiative while waiting for the effects of the Iranian-Saudi agreement on the Lebanese presidential file.
It seems, according to confirmed information, that the Lebanese file is the second on the agenda for dealing with the region’s files between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and to be more accurate, it can be confirmed, according to the same sources, that the solution to the presidential file will be in June at the latest.
And within the context of arranging the schedule of discussions on the expected Lebanese settlement, an external mediating party in the presidential file during the last two weeks conducted a tour of the names proposed to head the government, and as the sources assert, Riyadh seemed closer to supporting the candidacy of Tammam Salam, Fouad Makhzoumi and Fouad Siniora to head the government more than an ambassador. Lebanon’s former member of the United Nations, Nawaf Salam, bearing in mind that there are key parties in Lebanon that have expressed reluctance over Siniora’s name.
On the other hand, the mediators heard a firm answer about the difficulty of Hezbollah accepting any candidate other than Franjieh for the first presidency, its unwillingness to proceed with any settlement that does not lead it to Baabda, and its insistence not to accept any alternative plan, even if the presidential crisis is prolonged.
In conclusion, the French initiative to get Suleiman Franjieh into the Baabda Palace has been met with obstacles due to Saudi Arabia’s disapproval. While France initially had the support of the United States, Washington withdrew its mandate to pursue the Lebanese presidential file. With the Yemeni file being resolved, it is expected that the Lebanese file will be discussed between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The solution to the presidential file is expected to be revealed by June at the latest. Meanwhile, external mediators have been touring proposed candidates for the presidency and the prime minister’s position. Despite the reluctance of some parties, Riyadh seems more inclined to support Tammam Salam, Fouad Makhzoumi, or Fouad Siniora as the new prime minister. On the other hand, Hezbollah remains firm in its position to support Franjieh for the presidency, insisting not to accept an alternative plan. The situation remains fluid, and the outcome of the Lebanese presidential file is yet to be determined.