2023-12-11 14:47:17
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its latest interest rate decision this week, and the latest inflation data will also be released. These two major events will test investors’ optimism about interest rate cuts next year. The major U.S. stock indexes were mixed on Monday (11th).
before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose nearly 40 points or nearly 0.1%,Nasdaq Composite Indexfell nearly 30 points or nearly 0.2%,S&P 500 Indexfell nearly 0.01%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index rose more than 2%.
Global stock markets saw modest volatility at the start of a busy week as a slew of economic data and monetary decisions from major central banks will test investor optimism that interest rates will soon be cut.
In terms of foreign exchange,JPYThe decline against the U.S. dollar widened to 1% after foreign media reported that Bank of Japan (BoJ/BOJ) officials believed there was no need to rush to cancel ultra-loose policies on the grounds that there was insufficient evidence that wage growth would lead to inflation. After the news broke, the U.S. dollar strengthened and U.S. government bond yields climbed. The 10-year U.S. bond interest rate rose 5 basis points to 4.28%.
At the same time, traders are paying attention to US inflation data on Tuesday (12th), the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Thursday (14th Taiwan time) and US retail sales data. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) will also announce interest rate decisions this week.
Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies International, said this should be the last busy week of the year before entering a period of holiday illiquidity. While central banks may delay rate cuts, rates will not rise significantly, which would undermine the upward momentum.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data boosted optimism that the Fed can rein in inflation without triggering a recession.S&P 500 Index6 consecutive weeks of gains. The index has climbed to its highest level since March 2022, with several Wall Street strategists predicting further gains next year.
John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., and Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC on Monday made the most optimistic forecast, forecasting that by the end of next yearS&P 500 IndexIt will reach a record 5,200 points, which is about 13% higher than current levels. A research team led by Citi strategist Scott Chronert forecast the index would climb to around 5,100.
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, is among those taking a more cautious tone.He said: “U.S. economic data will need to be cautious in the coming months to maintain the recent gains. Although U.S. stocks are expected to maintain their recent gains and edge slightly higher next year, the stock market has already priced in a lot of good news.” He said expected next yearS&P 500 IndexIt will close at 4,700 points.
As of 22:00 Taipei time on Monday (11th): Focus stocks:
apple (AAPL-US) fell 1.28% in early trading to $193.20 per share
Apple’s top executives responsible for iPhone and smart watch product design will leave, and the company’s most critical product lines will face adjustments. It is reported that Tang Tan, Apple’s vice president of product design, will leave the company in February next year. Tan reports to John Ternus, senior vice president of hardware engineering, and the department is realigning responsibilities to cope with the transformation.
Huida (NVDA-US) fell 1.06% in early trading to $470.02 per share
Huida, the global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) chips, said on Monday that it plans to comprehensively expand its cooperation with Vietnam’s top technology companies in the future and support Vietnam in training and developing top talents related to AI and digital infrastructure. In order to fully seize the general trend of global enterprise deployment of generative AI and maintain strong performance growth, Huida is currently looking for a new revenue-generating engine. Currently, Huida has set its sights on the Southeast Asian market.
macy’s department store (M-US) rose 16.53% to $20.27 per share in early trading
Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management have offered to buy Macy’s Inc. for $5.8 billion, people familiar with the matter said.M-US). The acquisition values the retailer at $21 per share, sources said. Macy’s closed at just over $17 a share on Friday, down about 17% since the beginning of the year.
Today’s key economic data:
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Wall Street analysis:
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett recently said that the continued rebound in U.S. bond prices implies a slowdown in economic growth, and U.S. stocks will be affected in the first quarter of next year. The strategist wrote in a report released recently that the decline in U.S. bond yields is one of the main catalysts for the rise in U.S. stocks this quarter.AlthoughS&P 500 IndexIt’s up about 19% this year, but he remains pessimistic. However, if U.S. bond yields fall further to 3%, this will mean a “hard landing” for the economy.
Goldman Sachs said on Monday that it now expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in the third quarter of next year, earlier than the previous forecast of the fourth quarter of next year, on the grounds that inflation has cooled. Goldman Sachs pointed out that recent inflation data were encouraging and beyond its optimistic expectations, so our forecast path for the annual growth rate of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) has been revised downwards, so the expected time for the first interest rate cut has been advanced to the third quarter of next year. season.
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