While the European Copernicus Observatory estimated at the beginning of November “with near certainty” that average temperatures on the planet would this year exceed the annual record set in 2016, the IEA established that the tonnes of coal consumed worldwide this year would exceed the previous record dating from 2022.
The combustion of coal to produce energy or in industry emits a large part of the CO2 responsible for global warming into the atmosphere.
The appetite for coal is greatest in Asia: according to the IEA, this year, consumption in China will have jumped by 220 million tonnes (+4.9%) compared to 2022, that of India will have increased by 98 million tonnes (+8% ), and that of Indonesia by an additional 23 million tonnes (+11%).
On the other hand, consumption has slowed down sharply in Europe (decrease of 107 million tonnes, -23%), and in the United States (decrease of 95 million tonnes, -21%), mainly due to the change in power plants which are gradually abandoning coal to save the climate, and the weakness of industrial activity.
The IEA admits its difficulty in issuing forecasts for Russia, the world’s fourth largest consumer of coal, due to the war in Ukraine. The forecast for Ukraine is also “uncertain”indicates the Agency.
“From 2024”global consumption should begin a downward trendhowever, estimates the IEA in its forecasts published two days after the closing of the 28th UN international meeting on climate in Dubai, which called for a gradual abandonment of fossil fuels, including coal, to fight against global warming. .
Coal “peak” in 2023
The IEA is counting in particular on a very significant increase in renewable energies (wind, solar) on the planet to “push global coal consumption on a downward trajectory”. The consumption of “coal expected to peak in 2023” estimates the Agency.
Beyond the use of coal to power power plants, consumption should not weaken in its industrial uses such as cement factories.
Paradoxically, in the case of Indonesia, it is the extraction and refining of nickel, booming to supply the automobile battery markets of the energy transition, which favors the consumption of coal in mining processes.
China nevertheless remains by far the biggest player on the coal scene, with more than half of world consumption (54%) alone.
“More than 60%” of the coal used in China is used to produce electricity, and the country continues to build coal-fired power plants (52 GW of new projects have been approved in 2023).
But the IEA expects a turning point in 2023 if the country does not suffer too many cold (or hot) waves which influence the use of power plants.
According to the agency, Chinese coal consumption for electricity production is expected to fall by 175 million tonnes over the period 2024-26, to 2.8 billion tonnes.
As a result, it is India that will become “engine” for the upward pressure on global coal demand until 2026, underlines the Agency.
In the European Union, the multiplication of renewable energies favors the decline of coal. In Germany, lignite and coal-fired power plants are expected to significantly reduce by 2025, as solar and wind power plants which emit almost no CO2 are deployed.