A series of recent polls should send shivers down the spine of the government of Justin Trudeau, this one showing a disaffection for the party in power in favor of the conservative troops led by their new leader, Pierre Poilievre.
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On September 19, a little over a week after Mr. Poilievre took over as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the firm Abacus Data gave the party a five-point (35%) lead over the Liberals (30%) and the NDP (17%).
With summer in the rearview mirror, it is clear that many Canadians have remained bitter about federal management of passports and waiting at airports.
Added to this is galloping inflation, which is never a good omen for a government in place, even if it is primarily due to circumstances beyond its control.
Also according to Abacus, the rate of disaffection with the Liberal government has reached 49%, against 37% who approve of its work.
Even though the approval rating has moved away from August’s low of 33%, the gap between in love and out of love has widened since the spring.
Then, a Léger poll published on September 20 reported support of 34% for the Conservatives and 28% for the Liberals, for a difference of six points. The NDP cumulates here 23% of the voting intentions.
According to this same poll, nearly a quarter (24%) of Canadians still believe that Justin Trudeau is the best leader today, while Pierre Poilievre collects 21% and Jagmeet Singh 17%.
A week later, on Tuesday, September 27, pollster Angus Reid reported a seven-point lead for the Conservatives (37%) over the Liberals (30%). This is the largest gap between the two parties since 2019, after the outbreak of the SNC-Lavalin affair.
The Ottawa firm sees a repatriation to the PCC of voters who were seduced by the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) of Maxime Bernier, three quarters of them having replied that they would return to the fold.
Despite these figures, Pierre Poilievre begins his mandate with 51% of respondents saying they have a negative opinion of him and 35% who are in favor of him. For his part, Justin Trudeau collects 56% negative opinions against 40% support.
Angus Reid noted a major difference in opinion between men and women. The former are between 46% and 48% to support the Conservatives, and the latter, between 23% and 32%.
Age weighs in the balance, especially among 18 to 34 year olds. Men in this age bracket support the CCP at 48% and the Liberal Party at 15%. Among women in the same age bracket, 42% support the NDP, while the Conservatives (23%) and Liberals (24%) share most of the leftover pie.
Finally, the most recent poll, published by the firm Ipsos for “Global News” on September 29, is the first to give Mr. Poilievre a higher approval rating than Mr. Trudeau.
Performed at the same time as that of Angus Reid, this is the first survey to report that 35% of Canadians see Pierre Poilievre as the best potential prime minister, against 31% for the current prime minister.
According to figures from Ipsos, the Conservatives could delight the greater Toronto area, where they have 41% support, compared to 34% for the Liberals.
Nevertheless, this latest poll gives the Conservatives a 5% lead nationwide (35%). Compared to last year’s federal election, this represents one point more for the Conservatives and two points less for the Liberals.
The latest trend analysis from aggregator 338Canada, dated September 25, projects a narrow victory for the Conservatives, who would win 140 seats to 138 for the Liberals.
All the polls quoted in this text confirm a trend: Quebec remains the most difficult ground for Pierre Poilievre’s conservatives to penetrate, in particular because Quebecers have a negative opinion of the new leader for the moment.
Under the pact between the Liberals and the NDP, there shouldn’t be an election anytime soon.
The agreement signed earlier this year provides NDP support until the end of the four-year cycle, until 2025, provided the Liberals meet a number of demands, the most important being the place of the dental care system.