2024-03-19 05:10:52
Employment Information Service, manpower supply and demand forecast for 2022-2032
Economically active population turns to decline starting in 2028
Elderly people in deep poverty are ‘focused’ on unwanted work
In February, 4 out of 10 employed people aged 70 were ‘temporary workers’.
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On the morning of January 16, job seekers who visited the Seoul Western Employment Welfare Plus Center in Mapo-gu, Seoul are listening to explanations regarding eligibility for unemployment benefits, etc. yunhap news
The government forecasts that the economically active population, also known as the working population, will decline from 2028 due to low birth rates and aging. If this situation worsens, the potential for economic growth not only for companies but also for industries and countries will inevitably decrease. The concern is that the number of older people seeking unwanted work to escape poverty is rapidly increasing.
According to the mid- to long-term manpower supply and demand forecast for 2022-2032 announced by the Korea Employment Information Service on the 19th, the economically active population aged 15 or older will increase by 316,000 from 2022 to 2032. The increase is reduced to one-tenth of the 3.141 million people from 2012 to 2022. This is because the growth of the economically active population will turn into a decline from 2028.
The kind of reversal phenomenon in which the older generation replaces the job market that left out the young and middle-aged is expected to worsen in the future. The economically active population aged 15 to 64 will decrease by 1.703 million from 2022 to 2032. On the other hand, the economically active population aged 65 or older increases by 2,019,000. As a result, the proportion of the total economically active population aged 65 or older increases from 11.5% to 18.4%.
A decline in the economically active population is a factor that hinders economic growth. The Korea Employment Research Institute predicted that 894,000 people will be needed by 2032 to achieve economic growth of 2.1% (2022-2027) to 1.9% (2028-2032) per year.
The concern is that the elderly may be further forced into unwanted jobs in order to escape poverty. According to the ‘Pension at a Glance 2023’ report released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) at the end of last year, the income poverty rate among Korea’s population aged 66 and older reached 40.4% as of 2020. This is about three times higher than the average of 14.2% for OECD member bacteria. The older you get, the more difficult it is to find a stable job like a full-time job. According to the National Statistical Office, out of the 1.81 million employed people over the age of 70 in February this year, temporary workers accounted for 760,000, or 43%. The number of temporary workers, which was 487,000 as of February 2020, has nearly doubled in four years. Unstable jobs act as a kind of bondage to constantly finding new jobs. In fact, this phenomenon is noticeable in the unemployment benefit system, which is designed to help workers who suddenly lose their jobs make a living. Among last year’s unemployment benefit recipients, the number of recipients aged 60 or older was 25.4%, a 6.8% increase from the previous year. The proportion of people over 60 years old is increasing.
The government plans to actively implement policies to promote the entry of potential workers, including young people, women, and middle-aged people, into the labor market. The goal is to further strengthen job transitions and training in line with the industrial structure transition and field demands. Lee Seong-hee, Vice Minister of Employment and Labor, said at the 15th Job Task Force meeting on the 15th, “The impact of changes in population structure due to low birth rate and aging will accelerate on the overall labor supply,” and “We will create a foundation for continuous employment where middle-aged and older people can work as much as they want.” “We will strengthen support for job change,” he said.
< 저작권자 ⓒ 서울경제, 무단 전재 및 재배포 금지 >
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