2024-01-20 11:30:17
Markets hesitant in the face of global uncertainty
Over the past month, Brent and WTI oil prices have shown some hesitation, fluctuating between $75 and $82, and $69 and $76, respectively. This relative stability masks an underlying complexity, influenced by various factors. Geopolitical tensions, notably the war between Ukraine and Russia and conflicts in the Middle East, play a crucial role in this dynamic. Furthermore, OPEC policy, including key producing countries such as Russia, has a significant impact on global oil supply..
The pace of economic growth, particularly in key regions such as the United States, Europe and China, also influences the demand for hydrocarbons. Andréa Tuéni, sales trading manager at Saxo Banque France, underlines the importance of the key rates of the Fed and the ECB. High rates can lead to an economic slowdown, thereby impacting the demand for oil and, therefore, its price.
The precarious balance of oil markets
On the one hand, a rise in geopolitical tensions could lead to higher oil prices. The war in Ukraine has already caused a surge in prices, and the situation in the Middle East remains precarious, particularly with tensions between Hamas and Israel. On the other hand, OPEC policy remains a key factor. Fears are emerging around a possible separation of OPEC members, which could call into question current agreements and influence oil production. Saudi Arabia, in particular, plays a crucial role, having recently decided to reduce prices to maintain its market share.
Oil speculation and technical analysis: indicators not to be underestimated
Speculation also plays a significant role. Currently, the oil market is experiencing a low level of long positions and a high level of short positions. This imbalance could lead to a rapid and significant reaction if the trend changes. From a technical analysis point of view, Saxo Bank adopts a neutral position on Brent, anticipating a continuation of the trend around $80. Indicators, such as Bollinger Bands, suggest a decrease in volatility, but crossing certain key zones could indicate significant price movements.
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