Khaled Abu Shakra wrote in “Nidaa Al-Watan”:
Drowning in the “sea” of darkness prompted many to cling to the “straw” of Iranian fuel to operate the power plants. The imported fuel will be a gift, and will not cost the state a “penny”. In return, it will provide electricity and save citizens the cost of expensive generators. What sane person would refuse this generous and unprecedented offer?!
Let us first put aside the main obstacle represented by US sanctions on Iranian oil, and go back to the fall of 2021. In light of the crisis of fuel shortages and the problems of opening credits at that time, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah donated the import and distribution of Iranian diesel for free. Indeed, since mid-September, Iranian fuel oil tankers entered Syria through the illegal crossings, and the process continued until December.
However, the quantities that were introduced were very meager compared to the need, and they were not distributed free of charge. Rather, the bulk of them were sold at a price that was only 10 percent lower than the prevailing market price at the time. While the price of a fuel tank on October 20, 2021 was 270,700 Syrian pounds, the Municipality stations were selling Iranian diesel for 243,700 pounds. This led to the belief that a large part of the imported diesel was only that that was smuggled into Syria since 2020. Accordingly, the party made huge profits instead of bearing the price difference. Note that this diesel has not been customs customs, nor have any taxes and fees been paid on it, as it is imposed on legitimate private companies.
Iranian diesel is an example
At a time when the available data indicate that the total that was provided in the first phase, which is the largest, of the Iranian diesel distribution process amounted to 10 million and 350 thousand dollars, of which only 2.6 million dollars were distributed as donations, the need for electricity is at least 2.5 billion dollars . “Can Iran, in economic crisis, bear such a figure as a gift? The logical answer is no,” according to a follow-up oil source. And “the best that can be presented, if we accept, for the sake of argument, the possibility of aid, may be similar to the Iraqi oil deal. That is, exchanging 500,000 tons of fuel for services as a maximum.
Accordingly, the fuel is not a gift, but a trade exchange deal at the official level between the Lebanese government and a country mired in sanctions. This is fundamentally different from importing Iranian diesel through Syria for personal use. The Iranian ships will lay their anchors this time on the Lebanese shores and will empty the fuel into the tanks of the state power plants. Consequently, it will inevitably arrange economic sanctions on Lebanon. In addition, the introduction of fuel to the Electricity Corporation will block the way in the event of the completion of the deal to import Jordanian electricity, and bring Egyptian gas to the Deir Ammar plant, which are sponsored by the United States of America. It will also obstruct the maritime border demarcation file.” In his opinion, “the purpose behind this political offer by Hezbollah is to score a new goal in the goal of isolating Lebanon from the international community, and attaching it to the axis of the East, which is punished and burdened with problems and economic crises, and thus tighter control over all joints.” vital country.
The problem is not only fuel
This is in the general geo-political aspect. Technically, what is being proposed on the basis of importing fuel is a continuation of the existing approach that limits the problem of electricity to a lack of fuel, while “the problem is much deeper,” according to oil expert Charbel Skaf. And “which indicates the absence of the intention to deal with the repercussions of the economic crisis, of which electricity occupies a large part. We are still revolving within the framework of prosthetic solutions that turn Lebanon into a country of “shehadeh” and do not lead to a solution to the problem.” In his opinion, the solution to the electricity crisis is not “rocket science”, and all it requires is to start serious treatment steps that begin with restructuring the Electricity Corporation, appointing the sector’s regulatory body, addressing waste, improving collection, and engaging the private sector. So what is the benefit of bringing fuel from wherever it is if the waste continues and there is no levy? With regard to the Iranian fuel donation specifically for electricity, Skaf considered it “more political than economic”, aimed at marketing the opposition line, which is interested in highlighting its possession of economic tools that could help his allies. However, in a quick look, it becomes clear that this axis led by Iran, extending from Iraq through Syria to Lebanon, suffers from fundamental crises at the level of energy, and there is a huge shortage and inability to provide it. Thus, the whole event is a “bets that are not in place”, from Skaff’s point of view.
Sanctions are inevitable
The strangest thing about the reactions to Nasrallah’s willingness to bring in Iranian fuel for free is that Energy Minister Walid Fayyad welcomed the move, and considered it one of the solutions to the electricity crisis. This prompted sources to follow up on the official welcome status as blackmailing America. They believe that the introduction of Iranian diesel in September last year prompted a proposal to import electricity from Jordan and gas from Egypt. They hope that the adoption of the step this time will speed up the implementation of the agreement. However, what Lebanese officials are ignorant of, according to the source, is the US administration’s modus operandi, whose reaction to this step, if it occurs, may be to include Lebanon in sanctions and stop all forms of aid. According to a tweet from the head of the Justicia Organization for Development and Human Rights, lawyer Dr. Paul Morcos points out that “Executive Order 13846 of August 6, 2018 provides for the imposition of US sanctions on anyone who knowingly offers to enter into deals with Iranian oil companies, even as a possession, transfer or marketing.”
The straw of Iranian oil, upon which some Lebanese depend to get rid of the inferno, is a “straw” laden with sanctions, intentions of political dependence, and chaos. Which makes it a heavy straw that will “break the back” of the economy, which is burdened with all kinds of crises, and will not save it from darkness.