The third world war started

I never thought to see an atomic mushroom but in movies, but now I have the possibility to do it live. We are going to the seventh package of sanctions to wreck the Russian economy and the president of the Central Bank, the very mediatic Elvira Nebiúllina (guides the Russian economy with her pins), warns about the crisis in winter -just like in Europe, although for opposite reasons- and not in the financial sector, which would be a crisis vegetariansino carnivorous because it will affect the industrial structure and the production of goods. In this war there are two sure losers Ukraine and Europe. Neither the US nor Russia seem willing to lose and that reminds the fungus, which would make the human race a loser. The third world war has already begun in its postmodern form, the hybrid warfare as summarized by Frank Hoffman (2007): conjugation of multiple offensives: cybernetic, communicational, conventional, economic and military (if necessary). At the moment it is a war of attrition in favor of whoever can last the longest. Last year I argued from this space with a book by Vladimir Padrino, the Climb of Thucydideswho announced the possibility of war. He was right.

The communicational war makes the information about the conflict disappear that attempts analytical objectivity, and hysteria in the networks, I veto knowledge from which not even Kissinger, “Putinist” for Ukraine, is spared. The Russians come from a terrible tradition of communist precariousness, they know how to live without heating and since 2014, when they saw the handle of the dagger, they disassociate themselves from the West and prepare to bathe in cold water. That’s why punish her it is rather an incomprehensible masochism with terrible consequences. We are experiencing a tragic confrontation of the global economic system in two blocks, although most of the countries do not sanctioned the Russians, but only Europe and America’s closest allies.

Ukraine costs and will cost the world an incalculable, priceless mass of money, and its recovery is uncertain. Before the war he was already a failed state in the economic. Despite the fact that there are very poor former socialist countries, Moldova, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Trotsky’s is the only one that could not grow, it maintained the same GDP as in 1990. Military spending is a big business for the US, which supplies weapons of more expensive defense, its liquefied gas is worth three times more than piped gas and in economic matters it is winning, although it is terrifying to hear Borrel say “this war must be won on the battlefield”, that is, to the last drop of blood ukrainian In six months, Russia controls 20% of the territory, 28% of the population, and despite the fact that Western weapons hinder its advance, the superiority of the Russian artillery is deprived.

Russia controls the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, an electrical source for Ukraine and the continent. They devastated the infrastructure and factories with losses of 160,000 million dollars, half of the jobs and the refineries with damages of another 200,000 million dollars. They occupied the Ukrainian industrial zones and natural resources: 60% of the coal, 42% of the metal deposits, a third of the rare earths and lithium (with that Russia can pay for the war) The GDP will fall this year by 45% according to the WB , and banks face delinquencies that lead to bankruptcy. Collection has fallen by 40% while fiscal spending has increased by 60%, the deficit it grows 5000 million dollars per month, which will be 50% of GDP this year. The recovery would cost around 400 billion dollars.

Who will cover the budget of Ukraine and pay salaries, pensions, doctors? They print currency wildly, devalue it by 25% and burn currency for 1 billion weekly. They have the lowest gas reserves in Europe, barely 20%. Supplying it is worth 15,000 million dollars and 15,000 to recover the electrical network. It received 12 billion in aid and 20 billion more are coming by the end of the year. Plus 80 billion in humanitarian and military aid, but winning the war would cost massively more. The external debt is unpayable, the government is not transparent and that is why the support of France and Germany is diminishing. According to Bill Gates, the consequences will be sinister and will haunt humanity for a long time because in the coming months an unprecedented economic crisis will break out in a hundred years.

The United States entered a recession, the self-induced energy crisis drags Europe to the food shortage of wheat, grains, corn, soybeans, cane, oils and rice, from which 80% of what we consume is derived. Came from Russia-Ukraine 64% of sunflower oil 19% of barley, 12% of calories consumed. The fertilizers came from Russia, and prices will go up because what we eat today was produced last year. According to Gates, war leads us to stagflación, recession with inflation, falling world GDP, famines and humanitarian crises. They sacrifice Ukraine, which may be adrift, a kind of Haiti. Africa risks famine, Europe becomes a third world (Scholz recommends not bathing too much) Will the EU survive? For something the IMF said, that after an energy embargo on Russia, there may be powers that no longer remain so.

@CarlosRaulHer