According to figures published Tuesday by INSEE, the unemployment rate, measured according to the standards of the International Labor Office (ILO), fell by 0.1 points: France has 2.2 million unemployed, or 45,000 down from the previous quarter.
The unemployment rate for the 4th quarter is thus 0.3 points lower than its level a year earlier, and 1 point lower than its level before the health crisis (end of 2019), specified the institute.
“Over a longer period, we observe that the unemployment rate is at its lowest level since the first quarter of 2008 if we except the very temporary drop, a bit of a trompe l’oeil during the first confinement”, noted to AFP Yves Jauneau, head of the Synthesis and conjuncture of the labor market division at INSEE. During this Covid period, many people had stopped looking for work.
Several members of the government immediately welcomed these results, starting with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne who underlined on Twitter that the government is continuing its “full employment objective”i.e. an unemployment rate of around 5% that the executive hopes to reach by 2027.
“Good news for our #ObjectifPleinEmploi”, also noted the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt, pointing to an unemployment rate which “reaches the lowest level in 40 years reached once at the beginning of 2008”.
“In the thickness of the line”
For Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE), it is “rather a pleasant surprise” car “we could have expected stability”more “we are in the thickness of the line”.
These numbers are “fairly consistent” with the data published last week by INSEE on job creations, which showed “relative stability” in the last quarter of 2022, after seven consecutive quarters of increase, he noted.
For Yves Jauneau, “The situation for this quarter is somewhat that of overall stability: unemployment, the employment rate, the latter remaining at a fairly high level”. “The employment rate for 15-64 year olds is at 68.3%, the highest since 1975. There, it is stabilizing after an increase in the previous quarters”he added.
“Stability in the unemployment rate during the first half of 2023”
In a December economic note, “consistent” with the data published on Tuesday according to Mr. Jauneau, INSEE planned “a stable unemployment rate during the first half of 2023, concomitant with a slowdown in employment”he recalled, even if there are still “uncertainty factors” with the economic environment or the international situation.
By age group, the unemployment rate for young people (15-24 years old) fell by one point, to 16.9%, while the unemployment rate for 25-49 year olds was stable at 6.5%. Finally, the unemployment rate for people aged 50 or over barely decreased over the quarter (-0.1 point) to 5%.
In terms of “good news”, Mathieu Plane noted the employment rate on permanent contracts which “continues to improve” at 50.5% (+0.4 points).
In the chapter of “bad news”, the economist notes “the rise of the +halo around unemployment+ and underemployment”both increasing by 0.1 points, whereas in previous quarters they “generally” fell when unemployment fell.
The “halo around unemployment” refers to people wishing to return to the job market but who are not considered unemployed by the ILO (actually looking for a job and being available to take one). In total, 1.9 million people are affected.
With those “effects of communicating vessels“, selon M. Plane, “the news is to be taken with modesty on the drop in the unemployment rate”.