2024-01-15 00:15:00
© Archyde.com. Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | The US and UK have repeatedly launched air strikes on the Houthi armed forces, and international oil prices have risen in response. The valuation of central oil companies is expected to increase (with concept stocks)
Zhitong Finance APP learned that according to media reports, US and British warplanes carried out air strikes on multiple facilities of the Houthi armed forces in the Yemeni capital Sanaa, the western Red Sea city Hodeidah and the northern Saada province on the 12th and 13th. U.S. President Biden said in an interview on the 12th that if the Houthi armed forces do not stop attacking international merchant ships in the Red Sea, the U.S. government will order more military strikes against Houthi armed targets. Minsheng Securities believes that the instability of crude oil supply has intensified the volatility of oil prices, the oil price center has increased, and the reform of state-owned enterprises continues to promote the optimization of state-owned enterprises’ assets and the characteristics of high dividends, and the valuation of central oil companies is expected to increase. Related targets: China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883), China National Petroleum Corporation (00857), China Petrochemical Corporation (00386), and China National Petroleum Corporation (00702).
As of January 14, a new round of conflict between the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel has continued for a full 100 days. Since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out in October last year, Yemen’s Houthi armed forces have repeatedly attacked targets in the Red Sea waters to show support for Palestine.
In the early morning of the 12th local time, the Houthi armed forces’ targets in Sana’a and other places were attacked by the United States and Britain. This is the first time the United States and the UK have launched an attack on the Houthi armed forces since they began targeting international shipping merchant ships in the Red Sea at the end of last year. The Houthi armed forces said that many places, including the capital Sanaa and the Red Sea city of Hodeidah, were attacked 73 times by the United States and Britain.
After the US and UK attacks, the Houthis vowed revenge. A spokesman for the Houthi armed forces said on the 12th that the United States and the United Kingdom launched 73 attacks on many places in Yemen that day, causing many casualties. The United States and the United Kingdom will “pay a heavy price” for this. In addition to Israeli-linked vessels, the Houthis will also target “all American and British interests.”
U.S. President Biden said in an interview on the 12th that the Houthi armed forces in Yemen are a “terrorist organization.” He said that if the Houthi armed forces do not stop attacking international merchant ships in the Red Sea waters, the U.S. government will order more attacks on Houthi armed targets. Military strike. In addition, the White House stated on the 12th that the US government is considering reclassifying the Houthis as a terrorist organization.
In the early morning of January 13, local time, the US and British troops launched a new round of air strikes on Sanaa, the capital of Yemen.
Niu Xinchun, a professor at the China Institute of Arab Studies at Ningxia University, pointed out that this is the first time the US military has taken offensive military action since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which means the deepening of US involvement. This air strike by the United States and the United Kingdom will not only fail to solve the problem of the Houthis armed forces, but also will not solve the Red Sea problem. It is not ruled out that the Houthi armed forces will launch more attacks in the future to retaliate against US and British warships, and US and British air strikes on Yemen may also continue. But no one can contain the other, and both sides are likely to fall into a lose-lose situation.
Niu Xinchun said that at present, the possibility of non-state actors being involved in conflicts is still increasing, which may lead to the outbreak of multiple conflicts. One of the major concerns in the near future is whether the Red Sea crisis will further escalate, which will depend on the Houthi armed forces’ response to the US and British attacks in the next few days. Another big point to watch is whether the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will spill over to Lebanon. Recently, Israel has successively killed two senior commanders of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and hardliners in Israel are still advocating taking the initiative to attack Hezbollah. What actions the two sides take in the future will determine whether tensions in northern Israel will further escalate.
After the US and UK air strikes on Houthi rebel targets in Yemen, market concerns about the situation in the Middle East intensified, and international oil prices rose in response. During the European trading session that day, the highest intraday gains for the main U.S. oil and Brent oil contracts exceeded 4%, with Brent oil once touching the $80 per barrel mark.
Minsheng Securities believes that the instability of crude oil supply has intensified the fluctuation of oil prices, the oil price center has increased, the reform of state-owned enterprises continues to promote the optimization of state-owned enterprises’ assets and the characteristics of high dividends, and the valuation of central oil enterprises is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to PetroChina, CNOOC, and Sinopec .
CITIC Futures analysts Gui Chenxi and Zhou Chen analyzed that there are currently constant attacks in Iran, Lebanon, the Red Sea and other places, and US officials said they are making plans for the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. Geopolitical factors have shown positive support for oil prices. Amid expectations of expanding geopolitical conflicts and local supply disruptions, the upper boundary of oil prices has opened. We need to continue to pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation in the future.
CITIC Futures Research said that the current situation in the Middle East is still full of uncertainty, and market concerns about the outbreak of a wider conflict have boosted oil prices. As far as the crude oil supply and demand pattern is concerned, global high-frequency inventories have increased overall in the past week, with slight destocking in the Middle East and Singapore, and larger accumulations in the United States and Europe. The monthly spread of crude oil and the crack spread of refined oil products have continued to remain stable every week. The sluggish demand pattern has not yet seen a fundamental change. It is recommended that investors treat oil prices with a volatile mindset.
Related concept stocks:
CNOOC (00883): The company is China’s largest offshore crude oil and natural gas producer and one of the world’s largest independent oil and gas exploration and production groups.
PetroChina (00857): The company is the largest oil and gas producer and seller that dominates China’s oil and gas industry, and is one of the companies with the largest sales revenue in China. In 23Q1, PetroChina achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 43.6 billion yuan, +12.17% year-on-year and +49.88% month-on-month.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386): The company is a joint-stock enterprise integrating upstream, midstream and downstream, with a prominent main petroleum and petrochemical business, a relatively complete sales network, and domestic and overseas listings. It is mainly engaged in oil and natural gas exploration and production, pipeline transportation, sales, production and sales, storage and transportation of petroleum refining and other chemical products.
China Oil and Gas Holdings (00702): The group has successfully operated multiple oil and gas projects at home and abroad, and has accumulated a certain amount of operating experience in the oil and gas industry. It operates three oil fields in the Ordos Basin in Shaanxi Province, including Jinzhuang Oilfield, Liuluoyu and Yanjia. Bay oil field.
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