© Archyde.com. U.S. CPI hits heavily tonight. JPMorgan Jr. boldly predicts: U.S. stocks may surge by 10%
News from the Financial Association on December 13 (edited by Liu Rui)At 9:30 tonight, Beijing time, the most important data that has received the most attention in the near future-the November data of the United States will be released soon. Since this data is closely related to the Fed’s interest rate hike prospects, it has attracted much attention from investors.
JPMorgan Chase’s sales and trading department boldly predicted that since US stock investors have generally adopted a defensive stance, once the CPI data released tonight is more moderate than expected, it is very likely to trigger a strong rebound in US stocks. The S & P 500 index It will rise by as much as 10%.
Tonight’s data may determine the short-term fate of US stocks
For U.S. stock investors, the U.S. November CPI data report will be the last inflation report released this year, and it is likely to determine the direction of U.S. stocks in the next month.
“CPI data has the potential to determine the direction and size of the market ahead of earnings in mid-January,” said JPMorgan’s Andrew Tyler. The report is neutral or slightly dovish.”
At present, the market generally expects the CPI in November to be 7.3% year-on-year. And the JPMorgan Taylor team stated in the scenario analysis for the client to develop strategies,If U.S. inflation hits 6.9% year-over-year or lower in November, it could push the S&P 500 up 8% to 10%。
If the gains were indeed that large, they would push the S&P 500 up well over 20% from its October lows, marking the technical end of the past 12-month bear market.
Although the likelihood of this happening is quite small – the JP Morgan team puts the probability of this happening at only 5%, it also reflects the general view in the market that the November CPI data has a significant impact on determining the short-term fate of the market .
other possible scenarios
According to the JPMorgan team,The most likely scenario is that U.S. CPI rose between 7.2% and 7.4% year-on-year in November, which would send the S&P 500 up 2% to 3%.
At the same time, the JPMorgan Chase team also pointed out that if the CPI in November can drop from the previous month, it can also cause the S&P 500 to soar by 5.5% in a single day.
Taylor wrote in the report: “The logic here is that inflation is not only fading, but fading at an accelerated rate. This will increase people’s confidence in the forecast that headline inflation will fall to about 3% in 2023. Moreover, if inflation falls next year To 3%, regardless of labor market conditions, it seems unlikely that the Fed will keep the final rate at 5%. And any shift by the Fed would tear the stock market apart.”
On the other hand, if the November CPI year-on-year data is close to or higher than the previous value of 7.7%, it may cause US stocks to fall. According to JPMorgan analysis,If the CPI in November exceeds 7.8% year-on-year, the stock index may fall by 5%。