Few have realized the series of diplomatic setbacks that Algeria has suffered recently in a short period of time. They demonstrate, by their recurrence, that the financial manna accumulated thanks to the rise in gas and oil prices has not been of great help for its deployment, which it wants to be intense in this field.
Algeria recently welcomed four important events that it tried to use to confirm the resurrection of its diplomatic influence. This includes the visit of French President Emmanuel Macon to Algiers, the welcome given by Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed to the leader of the Polisario militias Brahim Ghali, the remarks reported by the Algerian press close to the government on a possible inclination of the Nigeria in favor of the trans-Saharan gas pipeline project to transport Nigerian gas to Europe via Algeria, and, finally, the reception of the leader of the separatists by the Kenyan president on the occasion of his investiture.
A dialogue of fools
The reality is that these so-called “diplomatic successes” melt like snow in the sun in the face of stubborn facts. Algeria has not gained much in its relations with France, except its commitment to increase energy flows to the EU to meet the needs of France. The “memory question” which she constantly uses as a pressure card on France has proved to be of little value. Otherwise, what is the point of setting up a joint commission of Franco-Algerian historians to examine the problems linked to memory, or of opening the French archives covering the colonial period, if not to save time without conceding anything in return for this that Algeria has offered in terms of gas deliveries to meet the needs of France, in this period of energy crisis which is shaking Europe? In short, Emmanuel Macron’s visit is reduced to a dialogue of fools.
Four false successes
The signing, on Thursday in Rabat, of a memorandum of understanding relating to the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the Kingdom of Morocco, comes , she confirms the persistence of the opening of Abuja on the two projects with an advantage for the safest and most serious route, Nigeria-Morocco, which enjoys international support (with the USA and the EU in particular).
The points marked supposedly marked in the Sahara file evaporated in turn as soon as Kenya made public its decision to revoke the recognition of the Polisario and to begin the closure of the chimerical representation of this entity in Nairobi, cruelly cooled the ardor of Algeria. An event preceded by the support given by Chad to the Moroccan autonomy proposal in the Sahara. On the Tunisian side, Algiers is by no means sure of the consistency of the position expressed on this subject by Kaïs Saïed, all in all relative when we recall that just after a press release came to confirm a so-called Tunisian neutrality in this file , knowing moreover that the Tunisian diplomatic apparatus does not seem convinced of the relevance of this unilateral decision which is at odds with the diplomatic doctrine of the country.
Reverse on the Arab front
And as these four allegations crumbled one after the other, Algeria found itself overwhelmed by a wave of successive setbacks. Starting with the abandonment, under pressure from the Arab States, of the request for the return of Syria to Arab rule. Algiers may try, to save face, to attribute to Damascus its non-participation in the Summit under the fallacious pretext of not further complicating the situation in the Arab world, Algiers promising in return to work, during its rotating presidency, to create the conditions for Syria’s participation in the next Summit.
Algiers had to suffer another disappointment, during the meeting of Arab foreign ministers when, under the effect of a broad veto by the Gulf States, it found itself obliged to comply with the protocols in force. and to send an emissary to Rabat to invite Morocco to take part in the next Summit; an act in flagrant contradiction with the rash decision to sever diplomatic relations with the Kingdom. Rejected, the Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs tried in vain to hide its embarrassment via a press release claiming that the sending of an emissary to Morocco is a moral and political obligation which is part of the register of diplomatic habits and customs, and that the Algeria knows how to distinguish between bilateral relations (the severance of relations with Morocco) and multilateral relations which require different treatment.
The maddening Moroccan case
A setback, in a different category, began to emerge when a leak published by Jeune Afrique and Achark Al-Awsat reported King Mohammed VI’s willingness to personally attend the Arab Summit, with no official statement coming. refute this information, nor is it true to confirm it. So far, no official reaction from the Algerian side, apart from a report by the newspaper Achourouk (close to the government) according to which Algeria will treat the King with the usual formal courtesy, without signifying any normalization with Rabat.
The press and social networks in Algeria have long led a cabal against the Palace, peddling lies about the King’s state of health and “his inability to exercise power”, about “a pitched battle within the Palace for the succession”. and the rest to match, knowing that these same forums had previously accused Morocco of acting to derail the Arab Summit in Algiers. Here they are now plunged into a profound bewilderment before the King’s decision (if it is confirmed) who would not be content just to attend the Summit in person, but would take upon himself the mission of convincing the Arab leaders “to participate in a very high level at the Summit in order to ensure its success”.
The blow will come during the visit of Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab to the United Arab Emirates, bearing a message of invitation to the Summit, with the presentation at the 51st session of the Human Rights Council of the United Nations in Geneva by the Emirati representative of a list of 35 member countries affirming their support for Morocco’s full sovereignty over its southern provinces and their support for the Moroccan autonomy initiative.
Back against the wall
Another snub is signed by the hand of President Abdelfattah Al-Sissi. From Qatar, the Egyptian Head of State declared that the Arab Summit in Algiers must restore a certain number of principles and concepts in the Arab region, “including adherence to the concept of the national State and the preservation sovereignty and territorial integrity of States”, and not to deal in any way whatsoever with “terrorist organizations and armed militias”. Algeria’s foreign policy.
A setback also from Algerian diplomacy, the beginnings, even before the holding of the Summit, of a global Arab understanding on the challenge represented by the extension of Iranian influence in the Arab region, including the Maghreb region, and which requires an urgent Arab response. This is, of course, a major challenge for Algeria, accused as much by the Gulf States as by other Arab countries (Egypt, Morocco) of serving as a bridgehead facilitating Tehran to extend its influence. in North Africa.
The meaning of a sum of reverses
But of all the disappointments, the most symbolically charged is that suffered, through the withdrawal of Kenyan recognition of the SADR, on African soil where Algeria has long acted on conquered ground. The decision of Kenya’s new president, which even his challenger for the presidency, former prime minister Raila Odinga, who garnered 48.85% of the vote in the last presidential poll, denies having challenged, is indicative of the changes taking place in East Africa, an area hitherto unfamiliar to Moroccan diplomacy. Along with Pretoria, Nairobi has long been a spearhead of Algerian maneuvers within the African Union.
Another revealing fact of this tight game on the diplomatic field, it is the Head of Government Aziz Akhannouch who represented the King at the investiture ceremony in Luanda of the re-elected Angolan President João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço, Angola being in this party of Central Africa, which in the past was not very conciliatory with Rabat. Shortly before, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, African Cooperation and Moroccans Living Abroad, Nasser Bourita, had received the itinerant ambassador of the Republic of Angola, Bernardo Mbala Dombele, last May. This means that Morocco is moving up a gear in its relations with its African peers to convince the few of them who have not yet done so, to revoke the recognition of the artificial entity founded in Tindouf.
The sum of these setbacks, due to their recurrent and simultaneous nature, is not likely to reassure Algeria about its ability to host the Arab Summit in Algiers in accordance with the pre-established calendar and should rather encourage it to reflect twice on the agenda of this meeting. Because, ultimately, the Arab States, as a bloc, could put Algeria’s back against the wall and force it to wisely take the path of reconciliation and renounce its actions which, because of their alignment with Tehran, threaten the Egypt’s national security, jeopardize Maghreb stability and undermine the Arab security system as a whole.