Russian forces “unlikely” to achieve goal of capturing symbolic city of Bakhmut on invasion anniversary, says Institute for the Study of War
A Ukrainian mortar fires at a Russian position on February 16, 2023 in Bakhmut, Ukraine. (Photo: John Moore/Getty Images)
It is “unlikely” that Russian forces will achieve the goal of capturing the symbolic city of Bakhmut on the first anniversary of the invasion, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published on Thursday.
“Russian forces do not appear to be accelerating their pace of advance around Bakhmut and are unlikely to meet the February 24 target,” the ISW researchers say.
Ukrainian officials have stated that Russian forces aim to capture Bakhmut by the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, but that “would require a significantly higher rate of Russian advance than anything seen for many months,” they add.
“Ukrainian forces could always decide that the costs associated with holding Bakhmut are too high and voluntarily withdraw from the city, even though Ukrainian forces and leadership continue to indicate that they intend to hold the city,” ISW says.
ISW has also previously assessed that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut “would likely prevent Putin from claiming that Russian forces secured the city on the anniversary of the invasion in an attempt to renew hope in a Russian victory in Ukraine.”
The head of the Russian Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said he expects Wagner fighters to encircle Bakhmut in March or April, and “Prigozhin’s pragmatic assessments of Russian advances in the Bakhmut area have generally been closer to the realities. tactics than assessments that forecast rapid Russian advances,” says ISW.
“The Kremlin may launch another series of missile strikes against civilian targets across Ukraine to mark the symbolic anniversary, as real military success continues to elude the Russian military,” ISW claims.
The Ukrainian military said on Thursday that Russian forces have strengthened their presence around Bakhmut, but Ukrainian units are still trying to prevent the town from falling into Russian hands.
On Thursday, Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, was asked on Ukrainian television whether Bakhmut was likely to fall before the first anniversary of the war.
“Due to their huge daily losses, they have to constantly rotate their forces and materiel. Otherwise, they cannot maintain such a high combat intensity,” he replied.
“We see that they are bringing in fresh forces. It is difficult to say how combat-ready they will be and how much they will gain in capacity by February 24. Because for our soldiers, any concentration ceases to be a surprise. They come from different units: Wagner, airborne, other special forces and Russian mechanized infantry”.
Cherevatyi stated that “time will tell. Our soldiers have been fighting for many months… For more than seven months, Bakhmut has become an absolute symbol of heroism and courage.”