2023-09-19 19:18:00
Over the last few years, Argentina has had various difficulties in facing its fiscal deficit, an extremely delicate aspect, since it directly affects the micro and macroeconomic variables; in summary, in the accounts and pockets of Argentines. And when it comes to addressing this problem, The State takes a key role.
It is that, as revealed in a recent report by the consulting firm Balancehe 68% of the debt in pesos issued by the Ministry of Economy, led by Sergio Massa, is currently in the hands of the public sector; remaining, in this way, only the remaining 32% in private.
As specified in the document, This represents an estimated total of 27.2 billion pesos of stockgenerated from the holding of National Treasury securities, which They are in the possession of the same State that generated them in the beginning.
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In his description, the fiscal deficit occurs whenthe expenses incurred by a State in a certain period of time exceed the recorded income.
When this happens, and a deficit is generated, there are three ways to finance it: increasing taxes, issuing money or taking on debteither in foreign currency, such as a loan in dollars, such as the one agreed with the International Monetary Fund in 2018, as in national currency, in pesos.
Specifically, it is the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic the main financier, so to speak, of the Argentine public debt, with control of 27% of the total. In this way, one in every four securities issued is currently in the possession of the entity.
Este numberor they are 12 points more than those registered by the same consulting firm in January of this year. Specifically, the stock in Argentine pesos of the BCRA with respect to holding securities went from 2.8 billion to 10.6, almost 400% more in nine months.
He is accompanied at the top of the table by another state organization: the CONSIDERED, chaired by Fernanda Raverta. The entity, which is in charge of the administration of Social Security benefits and services in the country, It has 10.1 billion pesos in stock, 25% of the total securities.
To get a sense of what this symbolizes: If we add the values of both government institutions, the percentage proportion is 52% of the total. Of the 40 billion pesos that today form part of the debt bubble in national pesos, 20.7 are only in these two public sector entities.
According to the Equilibra report, this is because “the private sector got rid of part of the securities, which accumulated in public hands”. Although, from the consultancy, they stressed that this “reduces the risk of rollover of each placement”.
Furthermore, it is highlighted that the Ministry of Economy “successfully overcame the problem of debt in pesos in the election year” and they assure that “a probable reprofiling or default is not seen in the short term.”
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In relation to the reasons behind the heavy debt in pesos contracted by the Central Bank, they argued that it was due to the fact “comply with obligations and tear down the wall of pre-electoral deadlines.” However, they warned that this “does not imply that public debt has guaranteed stability”.
“If by 2023 we warned that 10% of GDP was a difficult amount to refinance, That the 2024 maturities amount to 12.8% of GDP worries us even more. Worse still, the segment of maturities in private hands for next year would have risen from 5% of GDP to more than 6%,” the letter concluded.
RS / LR
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