A shocking and unpleasant event has taken place. With some kind of fright and oversight, Rosstat yesterday released statistics for 2021 and 2022. Given that in recent months, and you can guess why, almost all statistical data on the economy in Russia is a secret. And this released report confirms your guess. There’s a fucker. Not even like that. THERE IS A COMPLETE FUCK.
So what do we learn from this data? We see the dynamic development of the Russian economy during the reign of the late Putin, and during the 4 months of a special military grand patriotic operation in Ukraine. The numbers are amazing. It seems that the supreme power has spat on the economy and is rushing forward like the last time. Judge for yourself – data May 2021 compared to May 2022
During this period, the change in production by May 2022 year-on-year
Passenger cars: -96.7% (3,700 cars)
Trucks: -39.3%
ICE engines: -57%
Pass. wagons: -59.8%
Freight wagons: -51.8%
Fiberglass cables: -80.8%
Refrigerators: -58.1%
Washing machines: -59.2%
AC motors: -49.9%
Elevators: -34.7%
Excavators: -60%
In May, 3.7 thousand cars were produced in the Russian Federation, while in January 2022 there were 95 thousand, in February – 108 thousand. In March, when the “special operation” was already underway, and the sanctions had just begun, production for the first time collapsed – up to 40.8 thousand cars.
Retail Sales Turnover Drop by 4Q 2021 – 45% This is a pure smash. Who authorized the release of such figures, I do not know
The fall in GDP by the 4th quarter of 2021 is minus 20% Given the policy of the ruble exchange rate by Nabiullina, the fall at the end of the year may be even greater.
Business confidence shows a steep fall. No one even suggests anymore that there will be something positive in the economy – the numbers have collapsed by half from 2021
Turnover of wholesale trade – it actually stood up Falling 40%
Producer price index and consumer prices showed a sharp drop in the 3rd quarter, apparently a consequence of the strengthening of the ruble, but it also means that the profits received by producers tend to zero. Consumer prices are falling less and I think what you see in stores is that they are not falling much at all.
The drastic decline in the income of the population continues. And if you remember that it has been going on for 8 years, it must be very scary for Putin and his administration. As a result, these people will take up the pitchfork. Pensions in real terms fell by -8.2% yoy in May. Wages in real terms in April: -7.2% over the same period.
Worse, the country is dying. The fight against COVID-19 was completely lost by Putin. The numbers are terrible. And for the first time, this is not offset by an influx of migrants. Even Asians do not go, and the outflow of the Russian population itself is such that the balance has gone into the red. Reducing the population of Russia due to Covid (in 2022: the migration balance is also negative for the first time) And I think that these data should be multiplied by 2 at least.
The industrial production index shows that it does not care about the strong ruble, it has been falling steeply since Q4 2021 and the trend has changed to down since the beginning of 2022
Dynamics of mining – downward trend since the beginning of 2022
The dynamics of manufacturing industries, since the beginning of 2022, the trend has gone down. What the hell happened? The production of tobacco and textile goods, as well as petrochemicals, suffered the most.
I didn’t look any further, it’s already clear that the guard is there. Sanctions not only work, they simply destroy the Russian economy like locusts. Once again, I have the impression that President Putin no longer cares about the economy and the events taking place in it. He goes for broke, and he knows that if he loses, he will no longer need any economy. There is no other way to explain such Olympian calmness in response to such figures. This train is on fire and we know where it’s going.