Important international financial events this week include: U.S. non-farm payrolls in November, core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE) price index, third-quarter GDP revisions, and ISM manufacturing index and other important economic reports.EURRegional Consumer Price Index (CPI), Japanese and South Korean industrial production, and China’s official/Caixin manufacturing PMI.
In addition, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the Beige Book (Beige Book) on Thursday (1st), explaining U.S. economic activities and companies’ views on the outlook. Officials including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve Voting members of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) are also due to speak.
This week’s trading notes (1128-1202)
1. Economic data such as US non-farm payrolls and core PCE
US November non-agricultural data will be released on Friday (2nd) Taiwan time. This is the last non-agricultural report before the Fed’s last interest rate meeting this year. Following last month’s 261,000 new additions, the market is expected to add 200,000 people this month, the second consecutive month of slowing, but still steady growth, and the unemployment rate is expected to be flat at 3.7%, slightly higher than 50 years low point.
Changes in average hourly earnings are also in the spotlight as the market becomes increasingly sensitive to inflation. Since peaking at 5.6% in March, annual growth in US average hourly earnings fell to 4.7% in October and is expected to slow further to 4.6% this month.
Important U.S. economic data for the coming week include September housing price index, Q3 GDP revision, November ISM manufacturing index, October JOLT job vacancies, last week’s unemployment data, and the core PCE price index that the Fed is most concerned about. The market expects core PCE growth to decline slightly in October.
2. Speeches by Fed Chairman Powell and several FOMC voters
Since the Fed held an interest rate meeting earlier this month, a series of economic data has partially eased investors’ concerns about inflation. The minutes of last week’s meeting also strengthened the expectation that the central bank will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in December. However, many officials still reiterated the policy interest rate will be higher than originally forecast.
Market attention is focused on New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams (John Williams), St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard (James Bullard) speaking this week. 30 Speeches on the US economic outlook and labor market.
Strategists at TD Securities expect Williams and Powell to make it clear that the rate hike cycle will last longer as the labor market remains tight and service sector inflation remains high.
3. EURDistrict CPI
PivotalEURRegional CPI data will be announced on Wednesday, and economists expect inflation to decline slightly in November, the first slowdown this year, but will remain above 10% for two consecutive months.EURThe median annual growth rate forecast for CPI in the region in November was 10.4%, slightly lower than the previous value of 10.6%.
EURGermany, France, Italy and Spain, the four major economies in the region, will also release individual inflation data. Except for Spain, inflation growth in the other three countries is expected to slow down.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde (Christine Lagarde) will go to the European Parliament to testify on Monday.EURInvestors are concerned about any views on the region’s inflation and economic outlook. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane is also due to speak on Thursday.
4. Asian industrial production and manufacturing data
Industrial production data from Japan and South Korea will be released on Wednesday (30th), and the market will pay close attention to the impact of the slowdown in global economic growth on Asia’s two advanced industrial exporters. South Korea’s export data released on Thursday will also reveal the impact of global demand. health status.
On the other hand, markets expect Caixin and the official manufacturing PMI to decline slightly this week, as the resurgence of the epidemic forced local authorities in China to tighten epidemic prevention restrictions again, hurting local economic activity.