Tiroler Tageszeitung, editorial from January 2nd, 2024. By Michael Sprenger: “The year of the announced shift to the right”.

2024-01-01 21:00:28

Innsbruck (OTS) – The champagne corks were already popping at the FPÖ. You can expect gains in all ballots. Also in the National Council election. But there will probably not be a “People’s Chancellor” Kickl. This mainly has to do with the ÖVP.

The European Parliament elections will take place on June 9th. At least that’s fixed. When it comes to the National Council election, we only know that September 29th is the last possible date. According to their own statements, the ÖVP and the Greens want to serve out the legislative period, although there is an important electoral tactical reason for the Chancellor’s party to have the National Council election take place before the EU election. Because back then, on May 26, 2019, the EU elections were directly influenced by the Ibiza scandal. The ÖVP under Sebastian Kurz benefited from this and was able to make significant gains. She celebrated a clear victory with 34.5 percent.
You don’t need any prophetic qualities to predict a crash for the ÖVP this year. And that is exactly the problem with regard to the National Council election that will take place three months later. The debacle could prove to be a heavy burden for the ÖVP. So let people vote earlier or hope that citizens will let their guard down in the EU elections? The FPÖ doesn’t care much about such considerations from the Chancellor’s party. She sees herself at the top of the polls. Despite Ibiza and all that, she can expect to come first in the National Council election and the EU election. And, one might add, with Herbert Kickl as FPÖ chairman of all people. He is at the end of the scale in terms of likeability ratings. However, Kickl and his friends dream of the “People’s Chancellor”. Even if the FPÖ can confirm the polls on election evening, the chances of Kickl becoming chancellor are slim. Because while the Greens, NEOS and SPÖ rule out a coalition with the FPÖ, the ÖVP only wants to rule out Kickl as chancellor, but not the FPÖ as a coalition partner. If one assumes that the ÖVP sticks to its word, there are only two options after the election: a (three-way) coalition without the FPÖ or Blue-Black without a Chancellor Kickl. The ÖVP may be on the verge of losing the chancellor, but it determines how far the country will drift to the right.