2023-10-17 22:00:15
Edition from Wednesday, October 18, 2023
Innsbruck (OTS) – An invasion of Gaza carries major military and political risks for Israel and its allies. But above all they need a plan for the time following the war.
Ten days following Hamas’ incredible atrocities, it remains unclear what Israel’s response will be. The Israeli leadership has declared that the military goal is to destroy Hamas, which rules in the Gaza Strip. But the widely expected ground offensive is a long time coming. And what political goals the Israeli leadership is pursuing is not yet even clear in outline.
One can assume that Hamas was preparing for this scenario, perhaps even aiming for it. In the Gaza Strip, not only military traps await Israel’s soldiers, but also political traps await Israel’s leadership. An invasion might become a moral and international legal fiasco for Israel and its allies. And it can be the starting point for other actors in the region to get directly involved in the conflict.
The humanitarian catastrophe that has been unfolding before the world’s eyes for days may have been just a harbinger of what is to come. After a request from Israel, half of the population of the Gaza Strip is on the run. But where should these people go? And can they ever return? It is not only among Palestinians that there is concern that there is a threat of another “Nakba” (Arabic for catastrophe), a permanent displacement.
There are radicals in Israel’s government who, even before the Hamas attack, demanded that Israel reconquer the Gaza Strip and, if necessary, enforce its claims in the occupied areas of the West Bank by force. You may now sense a historic opportunity. Added to this is the old Israeli doctrine of deterring enemies through harshness and punishment.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that he will create a new Middle East. The world is alarmed. The mediators give each other a hand in the crisis region. One can assume that where there is solidarity on the outside, there is often a warning on the inside. And one can assume: Israel’s allies, from US President Joe Biden downwards, have completely different ideas regarding a new Middle East than Netanyahu and his right-wing partners.
What comes following the war initially relates to the Gaza Strip. Even if Israel achieves its military goal there: Who should take the lead in the rubble and tears? But behind this lies the much bigger question of what will happen next in the Middle East conflict. Thousands of victims are suing. If it has not become clear now that historic concessions and a political solution are needed so that all people in the region can live in security, when will it?
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