Among the outposts of the 3-year-old classic, the GIII Tokinominoru Kinen Cup (Tokyo, Shiba 1800m), which has received a lot of attention, will be held on February 13.
As we all know, the race is the focus of attention because the horses that perform well here often win the classics later. Last year, the winning horse Efforia won the GI Satsuki Award (Nakayama, Shiba 2000m), and Shahryar, who finished third, won the GI Japan Derby (Tokyo, Shiba 2400m).
With such a history, the Tokinominoru Kinen has the image of a “hard race.” However, looking back on the results of the past 10 years, the most popular is only one win. Although it is rare for a large hole that is popular with double digits to emerge, it can be said that it is a race that is not straightforward, as ambush soldiers who are 4th or less popular are often within the range of betting tickets (within 3rd place).
If so, it is not a bad idea to aim for a good dividend in anticipation of a turbulence this year as well. So, referring to the results of the past 10 years, I would like to find out the ambush horses that are likely to run hard in this race.
The first thing I want to pay attention to is Deep Impact production pieces.
Speaking of Deep Impact, it is a great stallion that no longer needs explanation. In the JRA’s mileage and above grade races, his companion piece has performed well in most races.
Among them, the Tokinominoru Cup is showing exceptional strength. After all, deep production pieces have been in the betting ticket range for the past 10 years in a row.
Considering its compatibility, deep production pieces cannot be ignored, but there is no participation in deep production pieces this year. Even so, two horses called Mother and Father Deep Impact will run. I would like to expect these this time.
Avanturier (3 years old) and Red Monreve (3 years old).
After deciding to win the new horse, Avanturier finished 3rd in the 1-win class Begonia Award (November 28 / Tokyo, Shiba 1600m) and 4th in the open special Junior C (January 5 / Nakayama, Shiba 1600m). Although it ended in, both marked the fastest rise of the members. The decisive factor is not inferior here either.
Red Monreve unfortunately lost to 2nd place in the new horse race, but won the unwinning race (December 28 / Nakayama, Shiba 1800m) in the previous race. His grandmother is a good-blooded woman named Air Groove, and her hidden qualities are top class here as well.
Horses that have fought well in GIs and grade races are popular, and neither can be expected to be top-ranked, but disregard is prohibited. Moreover, if we focus on the past data that the horses that draw the blood of Deep Impact are proud of their strength, it is no wonder that there is a big run.
Next, I would like to take up the horses that have been challenged since the new horse wins. This type of good run has often been seen in the past, whether popular or unpopular.
For example, Real Steel, which won the 3rd most popular in 2015, Satono Soltas, who finished 2nd in the 3rd most popular in 2018, Firio Allegro, who finished 3rd in the 2nd most popular in 2020, 7 in 2021. Victipharus, who was the most popular and finished second, and Shahryar, who was the second most popular and third in the same year.
In the first place, it can be said that the fact that the new horse wins and challenges the Tokinominoru Cup is a talent that the camp has high expectations for. That is why there are many good examples of such patterns.
Considering that point, we cannot remove the horses that will challenge from the new horse win this year as well. And this time too, there is one candidate horse.
Danone Beluga (3 years old).
Danone Beluga, who has just won the new horse race, but cannot be underestimated
Danone Beluga marked the fastest rise of 33 seconds 1 among the members in the first 2-year-old new horse (November 21, Tokyo, Shiba 2000m). He showed a sharp taste and won the race. Although his career is poor, his race is quite appealing.
Finally, there is something I would like to add. It’s the third most popular horse. That’s because he has done well in the last 10 years with 3 wins, 2nd place, 2nd place and 2nd place.
This time, the target is Asahi (3 years old).
According to Shimouma’s criticism, the people who participated in the high-ranking battle at the GI Asahi Cup Futurity S (December 19, Hanshin, Shiba 1600m) are likely to gain popularity this year. Danone Scorpion (3 years old) who finished 3rd in the race and Geoglyph (3 years old) who finished 5th in the same race.
Following these, Asahi finished second at the GII Tokyo Sports Cup 2-year-old S (November 20, Tokyo, Shiba 1800m). Although he was two and a half horses behind the winning Equinox, it is commendable that he finished second in a race where talented horses gathered.
If it actually becomes the third most popular on the day, it may be considered as the axis of the betting ticket in consideration of past results.
This year, one of the Keisei Stakes, Negishi Stakes, last week’s Kisaragi Sho, and the Anoma extracted from “past data” are always within the betting ticket range. Among the four horses listed here in this Tokinominoru Cup, there may be a horse that plays a high-ranking battle and brings a good dividend.