2023-10-27 21:15:06
Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three best bets in the NFL’s Week 8 slate, featuring Patriots vs Dolphins, Panthers and Texans, plus the Chargers hosting the Bears.
Patriots at Dolphins (-9.5): O/U 47.0
The Patriots are coming off an epic win over the Bills last week, which sets them up for a letdown spot on the road versus another divisional opponent, the Miami Dolphins.
New England beat the New York Jets in Week 3 then followed that up with a 38-3 loss at Dallas, something that could happen here.
Miami beat New England, 24-17, in Week 2 at New England and since then the Patriots have scored 15, 3, 0, 17, and 29 points for 12.8 points per game.
I don’t expect this Patriots’ offense to hang with the Dolphins in Miami, especially since the Fins’ suffered its second loss of the season on Sunday Night Football last week.
Miami is being deemed overrated after coming into the Eagles’ game with a schedule that was a combined 5-24. You can’t control who you play, but how you play.
The Dolphins will be hungry to get back in the win column and do it in fashion against the Patriots, so give me Miami -9.5 at -110 odds out to -10.
Pick: Dolphins -9.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Texans (-3.5) at Panthers: O/U 43.5
The Panthers are the only team left in the NFL that has failed to cover at least one spread. Carolina is 0-5-1 ATS and the only time I bet them this season, they pushed. I am taking my shot on the Panthers out of the bye week.
Carolina can be a force on the ground, recording 31.1% of their runs for a first down or a touchdown. The passing attack behind Bryce Young won’t strike fear into opponents quite like C.J. Stroud of the Texans can, but this is an ideal spot for the Panthers.
Houston can be one-dimensional with Stroud if Dameon Pierce fails to find room to run, and I expect that to happen here.
While Carolina doesn’t boast positive defensive numbers, we have to remember they played Miami, Minnesota, Detroit, Seattle, Atlanta, and New Orleans — six possible playoff teams.
Houston is coming off a bye week as well, which helps because this is a road game and facing Atlanta and New Orleans in physical games the past two contests. The Texans are 1-2 in their road games this season with a victory over the Jaguars and losses to the Ravens and Falcons.
I grabbed the Panthers +3.5 at -110 odds and sprinkled the ML at +150. I think Carolina can get its first cover and win here at home.
This is the best part of Carolina’s schedule with Houston, Indianapolis, and Chicago on deck. Carolina could go 3-0 ATS over the next three games starting here.
When the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks have met at QB, it is split 2-2 with the No. 2 pick (Stroud) winning the past two. This game will also feature No. 3 Will Anderson, making this the first NFL game with the top three picks of a rookie draft all playing in the same game.
Pick: Panthers +3.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Bears at Chargers (-8.5): O/U 46.5
Justin Fields remains week-to-week, so odds are Tyson Bagent will make his second career start after a 30-12 win versus Las Vegas. If you ask me, now going on prime time is the perfect fade opportunity.
Chicago has not recorded back-to-back wins in 2022 or 2023. The Bears haven’t won back-to-back games since Weeks 16 and 17 of 2021. Chicago will go to the West Coast to take on the Los Angeles Chargers.
Los Angeles lost two straight games to Dallas and Kansas City, so the Chargers are desperate to right the ship sitting at 2-4 on the season. The Chargers’ lone wins came versus Minnesota and Las Vegas, but that last win was on Oct. 1.
Chicago hasn’t played a West Coast road game since 12/26/2021, so I like the Chargers to take advantage early of the backup QB and primetime spotlight, one that Justin Herbert thrives in.
The turnover differential is +5 for Los Angeles and -3 for Chicago, which I believe plays a factor in this matchup. I played the Chargers -8.5 at -110 odds and would go out to -10. I think L.A. wins by double-digits.
Pick: Chargers -8.5 (1.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 35-20-1 (63.6%) +11.1 units
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