A boycott of Russian oil could push the value of a barrel up to $160, a new record not seen since 2008.
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Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, the value of the barrel has jumped. It was already above $120 on Monday, as global markets feared a Western boycott of Russian oil, an option currently being debated as a measure of economic retaliation against Russia.
“I think we can imagine $150, $160 a barrel. […] We could break records. But that said, if it led to a global recession, global consumption would go down, ”assessed Pierre-Olivier Pineau, holder of the Chair in Energy Sector Management at HEC Montreal, referring to this scenario in an interview with LCN, Monday. .
“For oil, it would be possible to find alternative sources of supply to Russian oil in the medium term. It is for natural gas that there would be supply problems”, however tempered the specialist.
Avid consumer of Russian natural gas, Europe – and especially Germany – depends on this resource to produce energy and for heating, especially since winter is not yet over.
More difficult to transport than oil, Russian gas cannot be fully replaced, so Europeans will have to learn to do without it and save energy even more.
Canada, with its gas reserves in the West, could have helped European countries, but export projects, such as LNG-Quebec, were ultimately rejected.
“It would take at least five years for the necessary infrastructure to be built. And in five years, it is to be hoped, the situation in Russia and in Ukraine will be settled”, evoked Mr. Pineau.
In the meantime, motorists will have to learn to live with rising gas prices, which are approaching $2 per liter in Montreal at the start of the week.
“If we put ourselves in a situation with such high prices, it is because on the one hand, there is a scarcity of oil, but on the other, there are consumers who are not very flexible. . […] If we were less dependent on gasoline for our trips, prices could not rise so high, ”said the specialist.