Could this be the swan song for plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV)? The latest figures for new car sales in France for the month of November 2022 reveal a lagging segment. Indeed, if the electrified car (hybrid and electric) nibbles market share, in particular with so-called self-charging hybrid vehicles (29,499 units) and electric vehicles (20,274 registrations), the rechargeable hybrid (PHEV) is down with only 12,340 registrations (+1.5% for a market share of 9.2%).
Thus, since the beginning of the year (January to November 2022), some 112,004 plug-in hybrid vehicles have been registered, a decrease of 11% compared to 2021, at the same period.
This disenchantment also affects Germany, where the ecological bonus should end at the end of 2022, and the United Kingdom, where the abolition of the ecological bonus already dates back to 2018. Even China – in particular the municipality of Shanghai -, the largest global market on PHEV, is considering removing all advantages related to this segment.
A heat engine and a small battery
How to explain this disaffection? A plug-in hybrid vehicle is an automobile equipped with a combustion engine, an electric motor and a battery. Unlike a conventional hybrid car which has a very small battery (allowing it to travel 1 to 2 kilometers on average) and which recharges during braking or deceleration phases of the vehicle, a plug-in hybrid car offers the possibility of recharging on the sector. But not only, since many manufacturers also allow you to use your heat engine as a generator to recharge your battery.
On paper, the plug-in hybrid is the perfect combo since it makes it possible to combine a petrol or diesel engine block (as on the Mercedes-Benz GLC 300, for example) with an electric motor and a battery and to escape thus to the ecological malus (but not to that of weight). In addition, in the eyes of users, this system offers security since they can always count on the combustion engine when the battery is empty or when access to a charging station is not possible.
But voices are being raised to denounce what some consider to be “ecological nonsense”. Thus, in January 2022, a study, signed by the firm Impact Living on behalf of the canton of Valais, in Switzerland, showed that the use of a plug-in hybrid vehicle depended on its owner. Not hesitating to speak of “a scam to CO2 standards, climate objectives and consumers”, the study showed that the vehicles tested (around twenty) consumed “230% more in a real situation than the values announced by the builders”. (source http://www.impact-living.ch/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Consommation-vehicules-hybrides-rapport-publie-IMPACT-LIVING-canton-Valais-11-01-22.pdf)
Unrealistic certification tests
Whether a car is thermal, hybrid, plug-in hybrid or even 100% electric, it must pass various tests to be approved, including consumption tests. These tests are carried out in the laboratory, according to well-defined common criteria. In 1973, the NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) came into effect. With the arrival of new engines on the market and unrealistic figures, the NEDC was replaced in 2018 by the WLTP (Worldwide Light vehicles Test Procedures).
This new test introduces a “utility factor”, corresponding to the proportion of kilometers traveled with the electric motor compared to the kilometers traveled with the internal combustion engine. This factor is used to calculate the CO2 emissions of a vehicle.
In 2020, a study showed that PHEVs consumed two to four times more than the advertised figure. The test cycle that automobiles must pass does not correspond exactly to real-life driving conditions. For example, the homologation cycle is only done over 23 kilometres. These tests are also done on an equivalent road without elevation, and at medium speed. These conditions are not representative of real roads. In this way, it is easier for manufacturers to bring their vehicle into line with the CO2 emission standard set by Europe.
Another important parameter to take into account is the way in which plug-in hybrid vehicles are used. Many companies have renewed their fleet with PHEVs at an attractive price, thanks to tax advantages in France such as the exemption from TVS (tax on company vehicles). It is total for models whose emissions are less than 60 g CO2/km – typically plug-in hybrids.
Professionals benefiting from a plug-in hybrid company car often have a fuel payment card, which does not cover electric terminals. Charging at a terminal becomes an option. Not to mention that it can be complicated to recharge if it is not possible to recharge at home.
Studies and prejudices to weigh
However, these studies, which are often biased, must be weighted by other figures.
Indeed 3 criteria are to be taken into account: the all-electric autonomy, the mixed consumption and the empty battery consumption, which, as we recall, is never completely empty in reality.
With batteries with an average capacity of between 10 and 15 kWh, the averages recorded from our tests show that most PHEVs on the market today allow you to travel a good forty kilometers in mixed driving. This is the case, for example, of many PHEV models from the Stellantis group, such as the Citroën C5 Aicross, the Peugeot 308 or the new 408.
Some even exceed 60 km, like the Kia Sportage, not to mention those that exceed 80 km in all-electric mode, like the Range Rover Sport p510 (but it has a huge 31.8 kWh battery, which literally weighs down its weight).
In any case, the all-electric autonomy seems sufficient to cover daily trips, which are on average around thirty kilometers per day.
The criterion of mixed consumption is important for manufacturers, who rely on it to praise the merits of their twin engines. Often displayed between 1.5 and 2.5 l/100 km, it inspires those who are looking for a frugal vehicle, much more than the sacrosanct diesel. In fact, the results are surprising, since in mixed consumption, during our tests, we do indeed find low values oscillating between 2 l and 4 l depending on the engines. But, and this is the whole problem, this data only holds over a short distance, between 50 km and 150 km for the best models.
The problem, it will have been understood, comes from the fact that once the battery is empty, the plug-in hybrid vehicle becomes a real anvil which has to drag the excess weight of its battery (several hundred kilos), thereby resulting in overconsumption of fuel and an increase in CO2 emissions. For example, a Peugeot 408 Puretech 130 hp weighs 1390 kg, against 1706 kg for the PHEV 180 version.
However, here again, this observation must be weighed: our tests revealed that, with an empty battery, the consumption of many PHEVs actually remains relatively measured, around 6.5 l/100 km on average. For example, we noted 6.4 l/100 km with the BMW 320 e, 6.8 l/100 km with the C5X, 6.5 l/100 km with the Peugeot 308 and Opel Astra PHEV 180 and 6.7 l /100 km with the Peugeot 408 PHEV 180.
In fact, it is indeed 2 to 3 times more than what the manufacturers announce, who only very rarely communicate this empty battery consumption data. But in reality it’s not so bad, insofar as the traction chain switching to simple hybrid mode continues to recharge the battery in the energy recovery phases, during braking for example, thus making it possible to drive in all-electric mode. during manoeuvres, at low speed or when starting, even when the battery is said to be empty.
On the highway, however, it is not a panacea. The recharging phases being more rare, the car is actually required to deploy more energy due to its overweight. We therefore find ourselves regularly with averages oscillating between 8 l and 8.5 l, thus burdening the autonomy which is already not glorious due to a tank amputated by the volume of the battery and which only exceeds rarely 40 l.
The biggest manufacturers have started plug-in hybrids © Renault
In the end, therefore, the consumption and CO2 rate of a rechargeable hybrid are above all a function of the way in which it is used by its driver and by home charging.
New standards from 2025
Faced with this difference in numbers, Europe announced that it wanted to change the standards at the beginning of 2022. It is now done: a European law has been passed. From 2025, the consumption tests of cars in the laboratory will be carried out by considering less significant use of the battery, so as to approach reality. And in 2027, the calculation will use a coefficient of 2.5 to the emissions that we obtain today.
Hopium Machina, is hydrogen the future of the automobile? © Hopium
So, what future for plug-in hybrid cars in Europe?
Currently, plug-in hybrid cars represent around 9% of the market share and are sold by most car manufacturers.
With the standards that will come into force in 2025, then in 2027, the results of the consumption tests of the PHEV should approach the real values. The values announced by the brands would therefore be higher than the standards imposed by Europe; they would therefore risk sanctions. Thus, the new European legislation should encourage car brands to create models that rely more on electricity.
However, the relevance of these new standards arises. In effect, January 1, 2035 will sign death almost definitive of the thermal combustion vehicle. Thus, the European Commission decided on June 8, 2022, which requires that the annual emissions of new vehicles be, from 2030, 55% lower than those of 2021. For 2035, the quota is even 100% compared to to 2021.
Given the global situation (inflation, shortage of semiconductors, war in Ukraine and soaring electricity prices), a reversal cannot be ruled out, allowing 100% electric to rub shoulders with other engines. , including hybrids, PHEVs and even new types of powertrains such as hydrogen (HopiumToyota, Porsche or BMW), not to mention e-Fuels.
A review clause, supported by the European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton and the French Minister of Transport, Clément Beaune, will make it possible to take stock in 2026 to study the new technologies available to support the decarbonization of the vehicle fleet. The Minister of Transport has also insisted on the fact that European manufacturers should continue to export hybrid or thermal vehicles in 2035, so as not to leave chinese companies conquer all developing markets. In short, the ambitions are clear, but the means to achieve them much less so.