Track Typhoon Gucheol: Latest Development and Forecast Updates

2023-06-08 06:12:00

2023/06/08 15:12 Weather News

Typhoon Gucheol is slowly developing east of the Philippines.

Typhoon No. 2, which approached the Japanese archipelago from the end of last month to the beginning of this month, is expected to follow a similar path trend, but a closer look reveals several different characteristics.

Typhoon No. 3 and Typhoon No. 2 are compared and explained.
» Latest typhoon information

High pressure determines course

Both Typhoon No. 2 and Typhoon No. 3 originated on the south side of the Pacific High south of Japan, and are moving along the edge of the Pacific High, initially northwest and then northeast.

Comparing the predicted track map of Typhoon No. 3 with the track of Typhoon No. 2, we can see that Typhoon No. 3 was formed in a location far northwest of Typhoon No. 2, and that Typhoon No. 3 is expected to take a small turn to the east. .

For this reason, the impact of Typhoon No. 3 is expected to be smaller in Okinawa compared to the previous Typhoon No. 2.

This difference in course is related to the position and strength of the Pacific High. Since Typhoon No. 2 was overhanging to the west due to the high pressure, it seems that the high pressure blocked the northward movement and the typhoon turned westward.

The strong overhang of the high-pressure system is also related to last month’s Typhoon No. 2, which developed into a violent force from the southern sea. The stronger the typhoon, the stronger the ascending air currents, so the descending air currents in the neighboring high pressure are also stronger, and the force of the high pressure increases.
» Himawari Satellite Imagery

Coming north is fast

Typhoon No. 2 took about four and a half days to reach the Izu Islands from around 20 degrees north latitude, but Typhoon No. 3 is expected to move north in about two and a half days. This is due not only to Typhoon No. 3’s inward course and shorter distance, but also to the fact that it is more susceptible to the westerly winds in the sky.

Although it’s not as fast as an autumn typhoon, it moves north quickly, so you can’t let your guard down.

Subtle north-south differences in the course have different effects on Honshu

Although the course of Typhoon No. 3 is predicted to be more inward than Typhoon No. 2, it is expected to pass through almost the same position as Typhoon No. 2 near the Izu Islands.

Although the accuracy of Typhoon No. 3’s path forecast is relatively high, there is still an error of several hundred kilometers in the north-south direction. It looks like it’s going to change a lot.

If the course moves to the north, the pressure pattern will be similar to that of Typhoon No. 2, and due to the interaction with the seasonal rain front and the trough of pressure in the sky, around the 12th (Mon) to 13th (Tue). It is conceivable that the amount of rainfall will increase in the vicinity of Honshu as well. On the other hand, if the course turns south, it is possible that it will pass east of Japan without much impact.

This error is expected to shrink as the days go by, so please keep an eye out for future information.
» Pinpoint Weekly Weather Forecast

Time when typhoons start to increase

This year, Typhoon No. 1 occurred in April and Typhoon No. 2 occurred in May, and this Typhoon No. 3 will occur for the first time in about half a month.

The average number of typhoons in June is 1.7, which is the time when the number of typhoons starts to increase. This is the time when the rainy season front becomes more active, so please prepare measures against typhoons and heavy rain.

typhoon name

Typhoon names are prepared in advance by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee”, etc., and are given in order of occurrence.

Typhoon No. 3’s name, Guchol, was proposed by Micronesia and is derived from the Yap word for turmeric.

Reference materials, etc.

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