Traders bought and sold shares on the highest temperature in Paris on November 16 as odds shifted. The market in question tracks the highest temperature in Paris on Monday according to a Polymarket report.
The prediction market features 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is 13°C at 47%, followed by 12°C at 40%.
Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities, where a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information, and shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
Since the market launched, it has generated $19.6K in total trading volume, reflecting strong engagement from the community and helping ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants.
Participants can browse the 11 available outcomes, choose “Yes” to trade in favor of an outcome or “No” to trade against it, enter their amount, and click trade, while also being able to sell shares at any time before resolution to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The market resolution rules define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner, including the official data sources used to determine the result and the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how the market is settled. Users can also follow the live tracker without placing a trade as outcome probabilities update in real-time while new trades come in.
