National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN).
A Pacific Basin Supercharged by El Niño Conditions
Tropical Storm Marie emerged during the early morning hours of Tuesday, September 1, 2026, swiftly gaining a more defined satellite structure as it tracked northwestward over the Eastern Pacific. Operating within a seasonal environment characterized by high water temperatures, abundant atmospheric moisture, and low wind shear, the system quickly established itself as the thirteenth named cyclone of the 2026 Pacific hurricane season.
Alongside Marie, simultaneous meteorological monitoring tracks other active systems in the basin, including Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell, stretching emergency preparedness across Mexico’s western coastline.
Current Coordinates, Intensity, and Projected Trajectory
By mid-morning on its formation day, Marie positioned itself approximately 645 kilometers southwest of Manzanillo, Colima, near coordinates 15.0°N and 108.7°W. The system registered maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour, a minimum central pressure of 1002 millibars, and a forward northwestward speed of 15 km/h, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 335 kilometers.
Forecasters anticipate that Marie will continue intensifying over the coming days, potentially reaching hurricane status by the night of Wednesday, September 2. Projections indicate peak winds could scale up to 160 km/h between Thursday, September 3, and Friday, September 4, before the system encounters cooler waters and a drier environment that will trigger a gradual weakening trend over the weekend.
Multi-Day Rainfall and Coastal Hazards Across Western States
Although the storm’s core remains safely offshore without any direct land-impact forecast or formal coastal evacuation orders currently in place, its vast circulation poses significant secondary hazards. The four primary states under preventive surveillance—Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán—face three days of heavy precipitation, electrical storms, strong wind gusts, and potential hail.
Civil protection agencies emphasize that the persistent moisture surge elevates the risk of localized flooding, sudden waterlogging, and dangerous mudslides in mountainous regions and low-lying zones. Furthermore, the NHC warns that hazardous marine conditions, including powerful rip currents and high surf, will impact the southwestern Mexican shoreline and extend northward toward the Baja California Peninsula.
Official Guidance and Public Safety Recommendations
Mexican authorities urge residents and coastal visitors to exercise extreme caution, strictly avoiding beaches, breakwaters, and maritime activities during peak high-surf windows. Drivers and pedestrians are advised against attempting to cross swollen rivers, arroyos, or flooded street crossings.
Because track intensity and wave heights fluctuate with every meteorological update, officials recommend relying exclusively on live tracking bulletins issued by CONAGUA, the SMN, and the NHC rather than outdated social media maps. Stay safe, keep a close eye on local alerts, and let us know how your region is preparing for these rough Pacific conditions in the comments below.
