The call came as a political earthquake—Donald Trump, the man who once called himself the “stability that the world needs,” now urging Armenians to “Make Armenia Great Again.” The timing? A week before a snap parliamentary election that could reshape the Caucasus. The stakes? Nothing less than Armenia’s future alignment between the West and Moscow’s shadow. And the message? A direct challenge to Vladimir Putin’s influence in a region where Russia’s economic stranglehold has long been the unspoken rule.
But here’s the twist: Trump’s endorsement isn’t just about Pashinyan. It’s about a geopolitical chessboard where every move is calculated, every pawn has a price, and the real winners and losers aren’t always who you’d expect. Let’s break it down.
Why Trump’s Endorsement Is a Geopolitical Landmine
Armenia’s June 22 election isn’t just another vote—it’s a referendum on whether the country will double down on its Western pivot or risk economic collapse under Russian pressure. Trump’s intervention, delivered via a video message to Armenian diaspora leaders in Los Angeles, is less about policy and more about signaling: *The West is watching.* The move comes as Armenia’s pro-Western Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, faces a fragmented opposition united only in its desire to oust him. Polls suggest his Civil Contract party could lose its majority, but a fractured parliament would leave Armenia vulnerable to Russian-backed hardliners pushing for a return to Moscow’s orbit.
Russia’s response? A mix of economic warfare and propaganda. Since Armenia’s 2020 defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow has weaponized gas prices, trade restrictions, and even visa policies to pressure Yerevan. In April, Russian state media accused Pashinyan of “betraying Armenian interests” by seeking closer ties with the EU and U.S. [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/) reported that Kremlin-linked analysts are framing the election as a choice between “Western puppetry” and “sovereignty.” Meanwhile, Armenia’s central bank has quietly devalued the dram by 15% this year—a move analysts say is partly to offset Russian economic pressure.
The Trump endorsement complicates this further. While Pashinyan has long been a critic of Trump’s foreign policy, the former president’s message—delivered in his signature blunt style—carries weight. “Armenia has been through hell,” Trump said in the video. “But with the right leadership, it can rise again.” The subtext? That Pashinyan is that leader. Yet, in Armenia, Trump’s approval ratings remain low, with many seeing him as a divisive figure. The real audience wasn’t Armenians—it was the world.
The West’s Gamble: Can Armenia Afford to Bet on the U.S.?
Armenia’s Western pivot began in earnest after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, when Pashinyan signed a peace deal with Azerbaijan brokered by Russia—a move that left Armenians feeling abandoned. Since then, Yerevan has turned to Brussels and Washington, securing a EU Enhanced Partnership Agreement in 2021 and a U.S. Commitment to deepen defense ties. But the question remains: Is the West’s support enough to counter Russia’s economic leverage?
Economically, Armenia is in a tight spot. The country’s GDP growth has stalled at 1.2% in 2025, down from 5.3% in 2023 [World Bank](https://www.worldbank.org/). Remittances from the diaspora—critical for Armenia’s economy—have dropped by 8% this year as global inflation and tighter U.S. Immigration policies bite. Meanwhile, Russia’s Gazprom has cut gas supplies by 20% since 2023, forcing Armenia to import more expensive liquefied natural gas from Europe. “Armenia is caught between a rock and a hard place,” says Dr. Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center. “The West offers political support, but the economic cost of alienating Russia is real.”
“Trump’s endorsement is less about Armenia and more about sending a message to Putin: The U.S. Is not going to let Russia have a free hand in the Caucasus.” — Dr. Mark Galeotti, professor of global affairs at New York University and a leading expert on Russian geopolitics.
Yet, the West’s commitment isn’t monolithic. While the U.S. Has increased military aid to Armenia, including a $10 million package announced in March, European support is more cautious. France and Germany have been reluctant to escalate tensions with Russia over Armenia, fearing backlash in their own domestic politics. “The EU’s approach is pragmatic,” says Armen Grigoryan, a senior analyst at the Center for European Policy Research. “They want Armenia to reform, but they’re not willing to pay the price of a full-blown confrontation with Moscow.”
Russia’s Playbook: How Moscow Is Weaponizing Armenia’s Weaknesses
Russia’s strategy in Armenia is threefold: economic coercion, political fragmentation, and cultural manipulation. The first two are well-documented—gas shortages, visa restrictions, and funding for opposition parties. But the third is often overlooked: the Kremlin’s use of Armenian diaspora networks to undermine Pashinyan.
Take the case of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president and a staunch Kremlin ally. Since his ouster in 2018, Sargsyan has been living in Russia, where he heads the Russian-Armenian Union, a group that lobbies for closer ties with Moscow. In recent months, Sargsyan has been touring Armenian communities in the U.S. And Europe, warning of the dangers of “Western influence.” His message resonates with older Armenians who remember the Soviet era fondly and see Pashinyan’s reforms as a betrayal.
Then there’s the Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) factor. The 2020 war left tens of thousands of Armenians displaced, and many blame Pashinyan for the defeat. Opposition parties, including the Prosperous Armenia Party, have capitalized on this anger, promising to “restore Armenian sovereignty” in Artsakh—a code phrase for reversing the peace deal and restarting hostilities with Azerbaijan. “The opposition isn’t just anti-Pashinyan; it’s pro-war,” says Dr. Vicken Cheterian, a Middle East expert at the French Institute of International Relations. “And Russia is happy to fund that narrative.”
Economically, Russia’s leverage is even more direct. Armenia’s 2025 trade deficit with Russia stands at $1.2 billion, with Moscow controlling key sectors like energy, metals, and machinery. If Pashinyan loses the election, hardliners could push for a return to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which would reopen Armenia to Russian economic dominance. “The opposition isn’t just anti-Pashinyan; it’s pro-war,” says Cheterian. “And Russia is happy to fund that narrative.”
The Diaspora’s Divide: Who Controls the Narrative?
Trump’s endorsement was delivered to an audience of Armenian-Americans in Los Angeles—a community deeply divided. On one side, you have the Californians for Armenian Sovereignty, a group that has raised millions for Pashinyan’s campaign, framing him as the only leader who can secure Western support. On the other, you have the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaks), a historic diaspora party that has long been skeptical of Pashinyan and leans toward Russia.
The diaspora’s financial power is immense. Armenians in the U.S. Alone contribute $1.5 billion annually to Armenia’s economy, more than half of which goes to political campaigns and NGOs. But the money isn’t evenly distributed. Pashinyan’s supporters dominate in tech hubs like Silicon Valley, while Dashnaks have strongholds in traditional Armenian enclaves like Glendale, California. “The diaspora isn’t a monolith,” says Dr. Aram Hamparian, executive director of the Armenian Assembly of America. “It’s a battleground, and Trump’s endorsement is just another weapon in that fight.”
Yet, the diaspora’s influence is waning. Younger Armenians, particularly those in the U.S., are less engaged in politics and more focused on economic opportunities. A 2025 survey by the Pew Research Center found that only 32% of Armenian-Americans under 30 plan to vote in Armenia’s election, down from 58% in 2020. “The diaspora is aging out of politics,” says Hamparian. “And without their money and votes, Armenia’s future is even more uncertain.”
The Wild Card: What Happens If Pashinyan Loses?
Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party is projected to win the most seats, but not a majority. That means coalition-building—and that’s where the real drama begins. The opposition is fragmented, with at least five major parties vying for power, each with its own agenda:
- Prosperous Armenia Party: Led by Gagik Tsarukyan, a billionaire with close ties to Russia. His platform includes reversing the Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal and rejoining the EAEU.
- Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaks): A historic party that wants closer ties with the West but also opposes Pashinyan’s reforms.
- Republican Party of Armenia: A centrist group that supports Pashinyan but could pivot to the opposition if offered a better deal.
- Armenian National Congress: A hardline group that wants to restart the war with Azerbaijan.
- Bright Armenia Party: A pro-business faction that could swing either way.
If no party secures a majority, Armenia could face a repeat of the 2018 crisis, when protests led to Pashinyan’s rise. But this time, the stakes are higher. “A hung parliament would be a disaster,” says Giragosian. “It would give Russia the opportunity to install a puppet government—or worse, trigger another war.”
Yet, there’s a silver lining. Armenia’s youth—who make up 30% of the population—are overwhelmingly pro-Western. A 2025 poll by Transparency International Armenia found that 68% of Armenians under 30 support closer ties with the EU and U.S., compared to just 22% who favor closer ties with Russia. “The future of Armenia isn’t with the old guard,” says Hamparian. “It’s with the young, the educated, and those who see the West as their best hope.”
The Bottom Line: Who Wins, Who Loses, and What’s Next?
So, who comes out ahead in this high-stakes game?
- Winners:
- Nikol Pashinyan: His survival in power, even in a coalition, would be a victory for Western influence in the Caucasus.
- The U.S. And EU: Trump’s endorsement sends a clear message to Putin that Armenia is not Russia’s to control.
- Armenia’s youth: If they mobilize, they could shift the political landscape toward reform and pro-Western policies.
- Losers:
- Russia: Its economic and political leverage over Armenia is weakening, and Trump’s move complicates its plans.
- The opposition hardliners: If they fail to unite, they risk being sidelined by a more pragmatic coalition.
- Armenia’s economy: Without stability, foreign investment will dry up, deepening the crisis.
The real question isn’t whether Pashinyan will win—it’s whether Armenia can afford to have an election at all. The country is on the brink of a crisis that could spiral into economic collapse or, worse, another war. Trump’s endorsement may have shifted the geopolitical balance, but the battle for Armenia’s future is far from over.
One thing is certain: The next few weeks will decide whether Armenia takes its place in the West’s orbit—or falls back into Russia’s shadow. And the world is watching.
What do you think will happen next? Will Pashinyan’s gamble pay off, or is Armenia’s Western pivot doomed? Drop your thoughts in the comments.
