Trump, Gaza, and the Risks of Unconditional Support for Israel

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Trump’s Gaza policy: A “Muddle-Through” Approach with Unforeseen Consequences

A recent Gallup poll highlights a significant shift in American public opinion regarding Israel‘s military actions in Gaza, revealing a new low in support. While backing for the operation remains more robust among Republicans, this dynamic presents a complex challenge for former President Donald Trump.The devastating images emerging from Gaza are undeniable, yet Trump finds himself tethered to the unwavering pro-Israel stance that has become a cornerstone of his party’s recent ideology.

Crucially, the commentary from Republicans who are now expressing reservations about Israel’s conduct often overlooks the extent to which Trump’s past actions may have worsened the humanitarian situation for Gaza’s civilians. For those in Washington, across the political spectrum, who still support israel, a growing concern is emerging: the possibility that a Trump-backed “blank check” for Prime Minister Netanyahu could ultimately prove detrimental to Israel’s long-term interests. As one expert, Shapiro, noted, Trump bears considerable responsibility for the current state of affairs, including the negative repercussions for Israel, such as heightened international pressure and reputational damage.

Historically, Israel’s conflicts over the past few decades have typically concluded with a “U.S.-scripted off-ramp.” This pattern is deeply ingrained in the political relationship between the United States and its ally, frequently enough requiring the Israeli Prime Minister to appear to be acting under American direction. However, despite recent critical remarks about the famine in Gaza, there is little indication that Trump is now prepared to exert such pressure.

According to Aaron David Miller, a seasoned Middle East peace negotiator who has served under multiple U.S. Secretaries of State, the issue isn’t Trump’s unwillingness to confront Netanyahu, but rather a misperception of his stance. Miller characterizes Trump not as an ideological supporter of Israel, but as a pragmatic “situationalist” whose instincts lean towards enabling and acquiescing to Netanyahu’s actions. Trump’s stated objective for Israel, as he articulated it, is to “finish the job,” a sentiment reminiscent of his earlier advice to “let all hell break out” when faced with Hamas’s intransigence.

Given the prolonged nature of the conflict,neither a decisive victory nor a thorough peace deal appears to be a realistic immediate outcome. A more probable scenario, at present, involves Trump and his associates facilitating a new interim agreement.Such an accord could perhaps allow for increased humanitarian aid and perhaps pressure Hamas to release more of the remaining hostages. Miller describes the options available to governments as “breakthrough, breakdown, and muddle through,” suggesting that Donald Trump has opted for the “muddle-through” approach in Gaza – a strategy that, by his own account, has yielded no Nobel-worthy achievements.

In the midst of a devastating period for Gaza, it’s difficult to recall Trump’s unfulfilled promises from the previous winter, when he boasted of brokering an “EPIC” ceasefire. Now, with Trump largely observing rather than actively intervening, the sentiment is one of wishing he had, for once, been right.

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The Shifting Sands of US Policy in the Middle East

Donald Trump’s presidency marked a significant departure in US foreign policy, especially concerning Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His governance’s unwavering support for Israel, culminating in the relocation of the US embassy too Jerusalem and the Abraham Accords, fundamentally altered the dynamics of the region.Now, as we look towards 2025, understanding the potential ramifications of a renewed Trump administration – and the inherent risks of unconditional support for Israel – is crucial.This analysis will explore the past context, potential future scenarios, and the geopolitical dangers of prioritizing one nation’s interests above a broader, more balanced approach to Middle East peace.

Trump’s pro-israel Policies: A Recap

During his first term, Trump consistently prioritized Israeli security concerns. Key policies included:

Embassy Relocation: Moving the US embassy to Jerusalem in 2017, defying decades of international consensus, was a symbolic victory for Israel and a significant blow to Palestinian aspirations for a future capital in East Jerusalem. This action fueled Palestinian unrest and strained US relations wiht key Arab allies.

Recognition of Golan Heights: Recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, seized from Syria in 1967, further solidified the US-Israel alliance and angered regional actors.

Cutting Aid to Palestinians: The Trump administration drastically reduced and,in certain specific cases,eliminated aid to the Palestinian Authority,citing concerns about support for terrorism. This exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and weakened the PA’s ability to govern.

Abraham Accords: While lauded as a diplomatic achievement, the Abraham Accords – normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations – were criticized for sidelining the Palestinian issue and possibly deepening regional divisions. The focus on normalization agreements didn’t address the core conflict.

Weakening of the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA): Withdrawal from the JCPOA, a move welcomed by Israel, increased regional tensions and raised the risk of nuclear proliferation. Iran’s nuclear programme remains a central concern.

These policies, while popular with certain domestic constituencies and aligned with Israeli goverment priorities, were often perceived as biased and detrimental to the prospects for a two-state solution.

The Gaza Conflict and the Escalation of Risks

The recent conflict in Gaza, triggered by the October 7th Hamas attacks, has brought the issue of US policy towards Israel into sharp focus. The scale of the devastation in Gaza, coupled with the rising civilian death toll, has sparked international condemnation and calls for a ceasefire. trump’s likely response, based on past statements, would be to offer even more robust support to Israel, potentially including increased military aid and diplomatic cover. This approach carries significant risks:

increased Regional Instability: Unconditional support for Israel, particularly during a large-scale military operation, can fuel anti-American sentiment and radicalize populations across the Middle East. This could lead to further terrorist attacks and regional conflicts.

Erosion of US Credibility: Perceived bias in favor of Israel undermines US claims of being an honest broker in the peace process and damages its standing with Arab nations. The concept of US foreign policy is at stake.

Humanitarian Catastrophe: Continued military aid without conditions tied to the protection of civilians could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, leading to widespread suffering and potentially triggering a mass exodus of refugees. Gaza humanitarian aid is a critical issue.

Strengthening of Extremist Groups: the perception of injustice and desperation in Gaza can create a breeding ground for extremist groups like Hamas and ISIS, further destabilizing the region. Hamas’s influence is a key factor.

Impact on the Abraham Accords: The Gaza conflict has already strained relations between Israel and some Arab nations that signed the Abraham Accords. Continued unconditional support for Israel could jeopardize these agreements.

The Potential for a Second Trump Term: scenarios and Implications

A second Trump administration could see a further entrenchment of pro-Israel policies.Several scenarios are possible:

1. Full-Scale Annexation of the West Bank: Trump might give Israel a green light to annex large portions of the West Bank, effectively ending any hope of a two-state solution. This would likely trigger widespread Palestinian resistance and international condemnation.
2. Military Confrontation with Iran: Increased tensions with Iran, potentially escalating to a military confrontation, are a real possibility. Trump’s hawkish stance on Iran and his close relationship with Israeli leaders could lead to a miscalculation with devastating consequences. US-Iran relations are precarious.
3. Further Isolation of the Palestinian Authority: Continued cuts in aid and diplomatic pressure could further weaken the PA, potentially leading to its collapse and a power vacuum in the West Bank.
4. Expansion of the Abraham Accords (with caveats): While Trump might attempt to expand the Abraham Accords, the success of such efforts will depend on addressing the Palestinian issue and offering concessions to Arab nations. Arab-Israeli relations are complex.
5. Ignoring International Law: A disregard for international law regarding settlements and the treatment of Palestinians could further isolate the US and damage its reputation. International law and Israel is a contentious topic.

The Case for a More Balanced Approach: Benefits and Practical Tips

moving away from unconditional support for Israel and adopting a more balanced approach offers several benefits:

Enhanced US Credibility: Demonstrating impartiality can restore US credibility as a mediator in the peace process.

Regional Stability: Addressing the root causes of the conflict and promoting a just and lasting solution can contribute to regional stability.

Improved Relations with Arab Nations: A more balanced approach can strengthen US relations with key Arab allies.

Reduced Risk of Terrorism: Addressing the grievances of Palestinians can help to counter extremism and reduce the risk of terrorism.

Practical Tips for a More Effective US Policy:

Re-engage with the Palestinian Authority: Restore aid to the PA and work with them to strengthen their governance and security capabilities.

Promote a Two-State Solution: Reaffirm US support for a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders with mutually agreed land swaps.

Condition military Aid to Israel: Tie military aid to Israel to compliance with international law and respect for human rights.

Invest in Humanitarian Assistance: Provide ample humanitarian assistance to Gaza and other Palestinian areas.

Facilitate Dialog: Encourage direct dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians.

Support Civil Society: Fund programs that promote peacebuilding and reconciliation.

Real-World Examples: Lessons from Past US Interventions

History offers valuable lessons about the consequences of biased foreign policy. The US experience in Vietnam, for example, demonstrates the dangers of supporting a government that lacks legitimacy and fails to address the grievances of its population. Similarly,the US support for authoritarian regimes in Latin America during the Cold War led to widespread human rights abuses and political instability. these examples highlight the importance of prioritizing human rights, democracy, and the rule of law in US foreign policy. The history of US involvement in the Middle East is filled with cautionary tales.

The Role of Public Opinion and advocacy

public opinion plays a crucial role in shaping US foreign policy. Increased awareness of the risks of unconditional support for Israel and the importance of a just and lasting solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can influence policymakers. Advocacy groups, such as Jewish Voice for Peace and the American-Arab anti-Discrimination Committee, are working to raise awareness and promote a more balanced approach. Palestinian advocacy groups