Former U.S. President Donald Trump has just released a new photo featuring Middle Eastern leaders—Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—sparking immediate speculation about a revived Abraham Accords push ahead of the 2024 U.S. Election. The image, shared on Truth Social late Tuesday, omits Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, signaling a deliberate exclusion of regional rivals. Here’s why this matters: A Trump return to the White House could realign U.S. Middle East policy toward hardline normalization with Israel and Gulf monarchies, potentially isolating Iran further and reshaping global energy markets. But there’s a catch—the timing risks alienating key Democratic allies in Congress and Europe, who oppose unconditional Saudi-Israeli ties.
The Diplomatic Chessboard: Who Gains, Who Loses?
The photo isn’t just a social media post—it’s a geopolitical signal. Trump’s 2017-2021 tenure saw the Abraham Accords broker Israel’s normalization deals with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. This time, the absence of Qatar (a U.S. Ally in counterterrorism) and Turkey (a NATO partner) suggests Trump may prioritize a “Sunni bloc” over broader alliances. Here’s the breakdown:
- Israel: Netanyahu’s government faces domestic backlash over the Gaza war. A Trump-backed normalization push could provide political cover, but risks deepening regional divisions.
- Saudi Arabia: MBS needs U.S. Protection from Iranian proxies. A Trump deal might unlock arms sales and energy cooperation, but Riyadh’s reform agenda remains stalled.
- Iran: The photo amplifies Tehran’s narrative of U.S. “regime change” in the region, complicating Biden’s efforts to revive the JCPOA nuclear deal.
- Europe: Brussels opposes unconditional Saudi-Israeli ties, fearing they undermine Palestinian statehood talks and EU leverage in energy markets.
Economic Ripples: Energy and Sanctions in the Crossfire
Trump’s Middle East policy would directly impact global oil markets and sanctions regimes. The U.S. Is already phasing out Iranian crude imports, but a Saudi-Israeli axis could accelerate Gulf production to offset Russian supply cuts. Here’s the economic calculus:
“A Trump administration would likely prioritize energy security over climate commitments, which could destabilize global oil prices—especially if OPEC+ tightens supply further.” — Dr. Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of IHS Markit and Pulitzer-winning energy historian (IHS Markit)
Sanctions on Iran and Hezbollah could tighten under Trump, but the EU and China may resist. Meanwhile, Israel’s tech sector—already a U.S. Trade priority—could see deeper integration with Gulf investors, but Palestinian economic exclusion risks backlash in global forums like the UN.
Historical Context: The Abraham Accords 2.0?
Trump’s 2017 deal was a gamble: normalizing Israel-Gulf ties to isolate Iran. This time, the stakes are higher. The table below compares key metrics from 2017 to today:
| Metric | 2017 (Trump Era) | 2024 (Biden Era) | 2026 (Trump Potential Return) |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Arms Sales to Gulf States | $110B approved | $23B approved (delayed) | Expected: $150B+ push |
| Iran Sanctions Enforcement | Max Pressure Policy | Selective easing (JCPOA talks) | Reimposed + secondary sanctions |
| Israel-Gulf Trade Volume | $1.5B (UAE, Bahrain) | $3B (expanded to Morocco) | Projected: $10B+ with Saudi Arabia |
| Palestinian Statehood Support (UN) | 12 Arab states abstained | 15 Arab states opposed | Expected: 20+ Arab states opposed |
But history warns caution. The 2017 Accords failed to deliver lasting stability—the Yemen war, Houthi attacks, and Gaza conflicts persisted. Trump’s photo may signal a return to transactional diplomacy, but without a broader regional security framework, the risks of blowback are high.
The Global Security Architecture: NATO vs. The Sunni Bloc
Trump’s alignment with Gulf monarchies clashes with NATO’s Turkey and Europe’s Iran engagement. Here’s how it plays out:
“Turkey’s exclusion from this photo is a direct challenge to Ankara’s regional ambitions. Erdoğan sees himself as the leader of the Muslim world—Trump’s move undermines that narrative.” — Dr. Soner Cagaptay, Director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute (Washington Institute)
For NATO, this creates a dilemma: support a U.S. Ally (Saudi Arabia) that opposes Turkey, or risk fracturing the alliance. Meanwhile, Russia and China watch closely—Moscow may exploit Gulf divisions, while Beijing could deepen ties with Iran to counterbalance U.S. Influence.
Domestic Politics: Trump’s Middle East Gambit and the 2024 Election
Trump’s photo isn’t just foreign policy—it’s a campaign message. His base sees Israel as a key ally, and Gulf states as economic partners. But Democrats and progressive groups will frame it as abandonment of Palestinians. The table below shows U.S. Public opinion shifts:
| Issue | 2017 (Trump) | 2024 (Biden) | 2026 (Trump Potential) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Support for Israel | 71% (Pew) | 65% (Pew) | Projected: 68% (but polarized) |
| View of Saudi Arabia | 28% favorable | 22% favorable | Projected: 30% (arms deals drive shift) |
| Palestinian Statehood Support | 31% (Pew) | 42% (Pew) | Projected: 35% (backlash to normalization) |
Trump’s move could energize his base but alienate moderates. If he wins in November, expect a rapid pivot: arms sales to Riyadh, a harder line on Iran, and deeper Israel-Gulf ties—all while Congress and Europe scramble to respond.
The Takeaway: A Region on the Brink of Realignment
Trump’s photo is more than optics—it’s a preview of a potential U.S. Policy shift that could reshape the Middle East for years. The risks? A more isolated Iran, deeper Gulf-Israel ties, and a fractured NATO. The rewards? Energy security, arms sales, and a Sunni bloc to counterbalance China and Russia. But without a clear exit strategy for Yemen, Gaza, or Syria, the region remains a powder keg.
Here’s the question for global investors and diplomats: Is this a new era of stability—or a recipe for another cycle of conflict? The answer will define the next chapter of Middle East geopolitics.
