US President Donald Trump stated on March 31, 2026, that the United States could withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal within “two or three weeks,” asserting that a formal agreement with Tehran is not a prerequisite for such a decision. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump similarly predicted that global oil prices would decline following a US exit.
The President’s remarks represent a significant escalation in rhetoric regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the multinational agreement initially reached in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 nations – the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, Russia, and Germany – plus the European Union. The deal limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Trump’s claim that the US does not require a modern agreement with Iran before withdrawing directly challenges ongoing diplomatic efforts. While the US unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 under the previous administration, reimposing sanctions, the current administration had signaled a willingness to re-engage in negotiations for a more comprehensive agreement. These talks, mediated primarily by the European Union, have stalled repeatedly over disagreements regarding the scope of sanctions relief and verification mechanisms.
The assertion that oil prices would fall after a US withdrawal appears to be predicated on the belief that increased global oil supply would result from the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Still, this prediction is subject to considerable market volatility and geopolitical factors. Analysts have offered differing opinions on the likely impact, with some suggesting that a disruption to negotiations could lead to increased instability in the Middle East and potentially *increase* oil prices.
The European Union, a key architect of the JCPOA, has consistently urged the US to return to the agreement, emphasizing its importance for regional stability and non-proliferation. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has repeatedly stated that the JCPOA remains the best available option for preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Borrell’s office has not yet issued a formal response to Trump’s latest comments.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council is scheduled to meet next week to discuss the implications of the President’s statement and formulate a response. A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry indicated that Tehran views the threat of withdrawal as “unconstructive” and a violation of international commitments. The spokesperson reiterated Iran’s position that it is willing to negotiate a return to full compliance with the JCPOA, but only if the US lifts all sanctions imposed since the initial withdrawal.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to monitor Iran’s nuclear program, verifying compliance with the terms of the JCPOA. Recent IAEA reports have indicated that Iran has continued to exceed some of the limits imposed by the agreement, although it has maintained cooperation with inspectors. The agency has not publicly commented on Trump’s announcement.
