2023-08-02 15:30:00
Even if my appetite for risk is high, I would not bet much on the chances of Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election. Despite the above, the 45e President can still hope for a victory.
At its best in chaos
Donald Trump and members of his entourage have previously claimed that he is at his best when the winds are blowing hard, the New York Post claiming in 2022 that chaos has long been his best ally.
While others would be dizzy, Trump gives the impression of gaining extra energy when logic gets out of hand.
There is very little logic left when you think that after being found guilty of sexual assault (you forgot it? many media too), he now has to defend himself in three major cases. Unheard of in all of American history!
And it’s not over, as you know, more charges will come soon from Georgia. None of these stories are trivial.
Unless blinded by partisanship or unfamiliar with legal proceedings, no one can seriously argue that Trump is the victim of White House harassment or conspiracy. Biden dreams of fighting with his 2020 rival!!
How can Trump still hope for a second term in such circumstances? First, because it crushes competition among Republican candidates. He is credited with 54% support and never has a candidate enjoying such a lead lost the nomination of his political party.
Add to this statistic the fact that Trump benefits politically from what can weigh him down judicially. Fully exploiting victimization and the evocation of a deep state ready to do anything to get him out of the game, he is solidifying his support among Republican voters and collecting financial contributions at a steady pace.
A record polarization
Assuming that Republican voters will not suffer from “Trump fatigue” due to overlapping trials and primaries and that Trump may very well be their candidate, one factor gives the Republican hope for a second term: polarization.
It has never been so marked for forty or fifty years. Everything therefore rests on a few undecided people and on the participation rate.
The consequence of this polarization is the fact that the presidential election of 2024 will still be played out in three or four key states. In 2020, this deal has favored Biden by very few. A few handfuls of voters in Georgia or Arizona.
I remain convinced that despite his unpopularity, Biden will repeat the feat, but who knows what will happen between now and November 2024? Who will vote or who will prefer to abstain?
Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections, yet we’ve had two Republican presidents (Bush Jr. and Trump) because of the Electoral College. Trump won by enjoying a perfect storm in 2016. This scenario is still possible.
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#Trump #win