According to reporting from The Washington Post and CNN, Gulf officials view Washington’s security guarantees with skepticism, fearing that shifting American priorities leave them vulnerable to hostile state actions and maritime blockades.
A Transactional Partnership Tested by Real Conflict
For a long time, the heads of Persian Gulf Arab countries regarded their ties with America as a strategic alliance. Donald Trump often saw it differently. Speaking of the Saudi monarch in 2018, Trump encapsulated a transactional vision of a relationship that Gulf leaders had long regarded as a cornerstone of their security: King, we’re protecting you. You might not be there for two weeks without us. You have to pay for your military.
That transactional framework suffered a reality check a year later when Saudi Arabia suffered the biggest attack on its territory in decades. Assaults against essential petroleum installations temporarily wiped out roughly half of the nation’s oil output, causing world petroleum costs to skyrocket. While Washington blamed Iran and condemned the attack, Gulf states were left with lingering questions about the extent of American willingness to confront Tehran on their behalf.
By Trump’s second term, Gulf leaders had taken note. As Gulf states pledged trillions of dollars in investment in the U.S. economy, Trump chose the region for his first official trip abroad. Declaring in Doha, We are going to protect this country,
that pledge faced its biggest test this year. Despite Gulf states’ efforts to avoid a regional conflict, the U.S. – alongside Israel – launched a war against Iran.
The subsequent retaliatory attacks across the Gulf forced regional governments to confront the question of what American protection really means. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the region on a diplomatic tour spanning the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait, carrying the task of convincing Gulf states that Washington’s security commitments remain intact.
Navigating a Disastrous Regional Turning Point
However, for numerous figures throughout the Gulf, the central issue is no longer whether Washington stays dedicated to keeping them safe, but rather whether the new arrangement with Iran places them in a superior or inferior position compared to their status prior to the conflict. Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), captured the mood in the region.
From the Arab Gulf states’ perspective, the Iran war is a disastrous turning point for the regional security order,
Alhasan told CNN, pointing to the agreement as part of a broader U.S. retrenchment. U.S. disengagement from the Gulf and the flow of financial and economic resources to Iran are likely to embolden Tehran further.
Nonetheless, the Arab Gulf states have facilitated and supported the Iran-U.S. ceasefire deal. For them, a bad deal is still preferable to war. A senior Gulf diplomat told CNN that the conflict showed that Iran had a well-developed plan to target
Gulf states.
| Year / Event | U.S. Policy Stance | Gulf Security Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Trump tore up the 2015 nuclear agreement. | Gulf leaders cheered; concerns remained. |
| 2019 | Washington blamed Iran for strikes on Saudi oil facilities. | Lingering questions about American willingness to confront Tehran. |
| May 2025 | Trump’s first official trip abroad; declared protection in Doha. | Pledge faced its biggest test. |
| 2026 | Joint U.S.-Israel war against Iran; ceasefire deal. | Ferocious retaliatory attacks across the Gulf. |
Economic Vulnerability and the Strait of Hormuz
Under the developing accord between Washington and Tehran, Oman and Iran will share formal responsibilities for managing commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, a significant portion of Gulf maritime commerce—particularly shipments of oil and gas—might operate under Iranian supervision.
Having previously rejected the Obama-era 2015 nuclear accord and applauded Trump’s decision to scrap it in 2018 for failing to protect their interests, Persian Gulf nations are poised to view the current U.S.-Iran negotiations with heightened anxiety, driven both by unaddressed grievances and what Alhasan described as a major loss of confidence in the U.S.
Speaking in Kuwait, Secretary Rubio stressed that the U.S. would not undermine
its Gulf allies in negotiations with Iran, and that he didn’t sense any doubts about our security assurances
to the region. We want to reiterate and begin to talk to them and engage them on conversations about every decision that’s made with regards to this negotiation,
Rubio told reporters, adding, We’re not going to do anything that undermines the security of our allies, our long-standing allies in the region.
Whether those diplomatic reassurances can repair the fractured trust between Washington and its Persian Gulf partners remains to be seen.
