Recent discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kurdish leaders from Iraq and Iran have highlighted the complex dynamics surrounding the Kurdish population in the region. Trump reportedly offered “extensive U.S. Air cover” and logistical support for Kurdish armed groups, suggesting that Kurds needed to align with either the United States and Israel or Iran. This approach, which has seen success in previous conflicts, notably against the Islamic State, appears to have faltered, with Trump later stating, “We don’t want to make the war any more complex than it already is. I have ruled that out, I don’t want the Kurds going in.”
The Kurdish forces are currently not positioned to launch an offensive, according to Abdullah Mohtadi, the secretary general of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan. He indicated that while We find “several thousand” Kurdish fighters in Iraq and “tens of thousands” willing to fight in Iranian Kurdistan, the Iranian regime remains too formidable, even with U.S. Backing. “For us to make any move, we need to have the Revolutionary Guards and repressive forces of the Iranian regime sufficiently weakened,” Mohtadi stated.
Despite conflicting reports, Mohtadi confirmed that Kurdish forces had not yet crossed into Iran but are maintaining a defensive posture in Iraq, where they are under constant threat from Iranian airstrikes. The ongoing tensions highlight the challenges of relying on air campaigns to achieve political objectives, as history shows that ground troops are often necessary to dislodge entrenched regimes.
The Kurdish Situation in Iran
The Kurds, often referred to as the world’s largest stateless ethnic group, number between 25 million and 30 million, spread across Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. In Iran alone, it is estimated that there are 10 million to 15 million Kurds, primarily located in the northwest region, bordering Iraq and Turkey. Historically marginalized, Kurds have faced severe discrimination in all four countries where they reside. The death of Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in 2022 sparked widespread protests, with the Kurdish slogan “woman, life, freedom” resonating across the Iranian opposition.
In Iraq, Kurdish autonomy has increased significantly since the U.S.-imposed no-fly zone after the Gulf War in 1991. This region has also develop into a sanctuary for exiled Iranian Kurdish groups, who are now contemplating forming an alliance to challenge the Iranian regime. However, Iraqi Kurdish leaders have expressed hesitance to engage in direct conflict with Iran, citing fears of Iranian retaliation against their own territory.
Goals of the Kurdish Forces
Mohtadi emphasized that the Kurdish forces do not seek independence but rather advocate for a democratic and unified Iran that respects the rights of all ethnic minorities, including Kurds. “We are for a democratic, secular, unified Iran where the rights of Kurds and other ethnic minorities are respected,” he clarified, countering perceptions of separatism.
He also argued against the notion that supporting armed Kurdish groups could lead to civil war or regional instability, attributing chaos in Iran to the regime itself. “Who shoots missiles to neighboring countries? Who massacres their own people? It’s not us, it’s not the Iranian opposition, it’s not the Iranian civil society, it’s the Revolutionary Guards,” Mohtadi stated.
The U.S.-Kurdish Relationship: A Complex History
The historical relationship between the Kurds and the United States is fraught with complexities. In the 1970s, the U.S. Backed Kurdish groups against the Soviet-backed Iraqi government, but later withdrew support, resulting in disastrous consequences for the Kurdish population. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger famously remarked, “Covert action should not be confused with missionary function,” reflecting a sense of betrayal felt by the Kurds.
More recently, Kurdish forces allied with the U.S. Military to combat ISIS, leading to the establishment of a semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Syria. However, the U.S. Has at times urged Kurdish forces to merge with local security forces, undermining their autonomy. Kurdish leaders have warned their Iranian counterparts against aligning too closely with the U.S., fearing abandonment as geopolitical dynamics shift.
Looking Ahead: The Future of the Kurds in Iran
The recent back-and-forth between Trump and the Kurdish leaders signals the precarious position of the Kurdish forces in the region. As Mohtadi puts it, the current moment represents a unique opportunity for the Kurdish population and the broader Iranian populace to enact change amid the Iranian regime’s weakened state. “This moment of weakness for the Iranian regime is a unique opportunity…not only for Kurds but for the whole Iranian people, and to change the face of the entire Middle East,” he asserted.
As the situation develops, the U.S. Stance on Kurdish support remains uncertain. With no concrete promises of military backing, Kurdish leaders find themselves in the same precarious situation: navigating a regional conflict that they did not instigate. The implications of these decisions will be critical not only for the Kurds but for Iran and its neighboring countries.
As this situation unfolds, the Kurdish community continues to seek ways to assert their rights and navigate a future that promises to be as challenging as it is uncertain. Engaging in dialogue and sharing perspectives on this pivotal issue can help illuminate the path forward.
