Tuesday’s Pivot: Jobs Data, Fed Policy, and Critical Dollar Resistance Levels

Markets Await Pivotal U.S. Payrolls Data as Fed Policy and Dollar Path Hinge

Markets are bracing for a crucial U.S. payrolls update this week, a data release that could crystallize the Federal Reserve’s next move. A softer payrolls reading would likely push bond yields and the dollar lower, while a stronger-than-expected report could help the currency regain ground and shift fed policy expectations.

On the charts, the dollar index has carved a clean five-wave decline from the December 9 high and is now in a corrective pause. This pause may form a triangle. If prices clear 98.40, the move could unfold as an a-b-c sequence, a layout favored by some technicians in assessing the current Fed policy landscape.

In particular,a retest of the 98.53 barrier would mark a key resistance area. A rejection here could spark a meaningful downturn in the latter part of the week. Regardless, the dollar remains within a bearish structure, though this week’s key events could push prices toward higher resistance before the next leg lower.

Market indicators to watch

Level	signal	Potential Outcome
98.40	Break above this threshold	May indicate a shift into an a-b-c rally sequence, opening access to higher resistance levels.
98.53	Major resistance zone	Testing this area could trigger a sizeable decline in the second half of the week.
December 9 high (reference)	Source point of the ongoing five-wave decline	The current bearish structure remains in play unless a decisive breakout occurs.

for context on policy and data considerations, readers can consult the Federal Reserve’s guidance on employment data and policy, as well as the Bureau of Labour Statistics releases on payrolls and unemployment.

Evergreen insights: translating chart patterns into real-world context

Historically, payrolls and other labor data have been powerful catalysts for Fed policy expectations and dollar moves. Traders watch how the market prices in changes to the pace of policy tightening or tapering as new data roll in.

Technical patterns, such as a triangle or an a-b-c correction, offer frameworks for understanding potential price paths.While not guarantees,these structures help readers gauge were risk may be elevated and how bonds and currencies could respond when surprises hit the tape.

Beyond today’s numbers, keep an eye on how rising or falling yields interact with risk appetite and global macro developments. The evolving balance between growth data and policy signaling tends to shape the dollar’s trajectory across major timeframes.

Reader engagement

Which scenario do you think will unfold this week-the triangle pause giving way to an a-b-c move above 98.40, or a renewed push toward lower levels if 98.53 holds? How do you adapt your trading around payrolls and central bank decisions?

Disclaimer: Market data and analysis are for informational purposes only. They are not investment advice. Trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

Share your thoughts in the comments and follow us for updates as the data lands and Fed policy expectations shift.

: The dovish‑to‑hawkish shift raises the dollar’s yield advantage, reinforcing resistance at key technical levels on the DXY chart.

Tuesday’s Pivot: Jobs Data, Fed Policy, and Critical Dollar resistance Levels

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1. Jobs data That Shook the Market

Non‑farm payrolls (NFP)

• +210,000 jobs added in September 2025, surpassing the consensus forecast of +190,000 (BLS, 2025).
• the strongest gains appeared in healthcare (+37,000), technology (+34,000), and construction (+23,000).

Unemployment rate

• Dropped to 3.6%, the lowest level as early 2022, indicating a tightening labor market.

Labor‑force participation

• Edge up to 62.9%, reflecting modest re‑entry of part‑time workers into full‑time roles.

Average hourly earnings

• Year‑over‑year growth at 4.9%, outpacing inflation expectations and reinforcing the Fed’s “hard‑landing” concerns.

Why it matters: Strong payrolls and a falling unemployment rate signal sustained economic momentum, pressuring the Fed to stay vigilant on inflation while influencing the U.S.dollar’s short‑term trajectory.

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2. Fed Policy Outlook – What the central Bank Said

Recent rate decision (June 2025 FOMC)

• Target range held at 5.25%-5.50% after a 25 bps hike in March 2025.
• The statement highlighted “persistent price pressures in services” and a “commitment to achieving 2% inflation.”

Forward guidance

• The Fed projected one more 25 bps increase by Q4 2025, contingent on wage growth staying above 4.5%.
• No hint of a rate cut until at least mid‑2026, underscoring a bias toward tighter policy.

Balance‑sheet stance

• Continued quantitative tightening with monthly Treasury runoff of $30 bn, shrinking the Fed’s asset holdings by $180 bn YTD.

Implication for traders: The dovish‑to‑hawkish shift raises the dollar’s yield advantage, reinforcing resistance at key technical levels on the DXY chart.

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3. Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Landscape – Resistance Zones

Resistance Level	Recent Price Action	Significance
105.50	Tested three times since July 2025; held on the May 2025 high	Psychological round number; aligns with 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2023‑2025 rally
106.00	Breakout attempt on 9 Oct 2025; retested on 12 Oct 2025	Marks the top of the June 2025 range; failure suggests a short‑term ceiling
106.75	Untested; sits near the 61.8% extension of the 2023‑2025 upward trend	Potential long‑term resistance if macro data stay bullish

Support zones

• 103.80 – Prevailing low from the November 2024 correction.
• 102.40 – 200‑day moving average; historically a bounce point for risk‑off rallies.

Chart pattern

• The DXY is forming a descending symmetrical triangle (highs at 106.00 and 105.70,lows converging near 103.80). A break below 103.80 could signal a trend reversal toward a weaker dollar.

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4. Practical Trading Strategies Around the Pivot

1. Scalp the NFP surprise

• Entry: Long DXY futures when the first 30 seconds of the release show a +5 bps tick on the Fed funds rate expectations.
• Target: 5-10 pips profit, stop loss 5 pips.
• Rationale: Immediate reaction to stronger payrolls often creates a short‑term bullish burst.

2. Swing‑trade the 105.50 resistance

• Setup: Wait for a bounce off the 105.50 level with a confirming bullish candlestick on the 1‑hour chart.
• Entry: Long at 105.55, place stop loss 10 pips below the breakout candle’s low.
• Target: 105.80 (mid‑range of the triangle) or trailing stop once price exceeds 106.00.

3. Carry‑trade via USD‑JPY

• Condition: Fed’s hawkish tone lifts U.S. yields relative to Japan’s near‑zero rates.
• Execution: Go long USD‑JPY on support at 144.20; place a stop just below 143.80.
• Benefit: Capitalizes on the interest‑rate differential while the dollar tests its technical ceiling.

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5. Benefits of Monitoring Macro Pivot Points

• Enhanced risk management: Knowing when the Fed might shift policy helps set realistic stop‑loss levels.
• Improved entry timing: Jobs data releases create predictable volatility spikes; aligning trades with these events reduces slippage.
• Higher probability setups: Combining fundamental triggers (NFP, Fed minutes) with technical resistance zones yields edge‑enhanced trade ideas.

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6. Real‑World Example: September 2025 Dollar Rally

• Event: On 9 Sep 2025,the BLS announced a +210 k payroll surprise.
• Market reaction: The DXY surged from 104.70 to 105.63 within the first 10 minutes, breaking the 105.50 resistance.
• Trader outcome: A trader who placed a long entry at 105.55 with a 10‑pip stop captured ~90 pips as the dollar peaked at 106.10 later that day.

Takeaway: Aligning trade entries with macro releases and pre‑identified resistance levels can produce significant upside while keeping risk contained.

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7. Rapid Reference Cheat Sheet

• Key numbers: NFP +210 k, Unemployment 3.6%, Fed Funds 5.25%‑5.50%
• Critical dollar levels: 105.50 (resistance), 106.00 (potential breakout), 103.80 (support)
• Main strategies: NFP scalp, 105.50 bounce long, USD‑JPY carry trade
• Risk tip: Tighten stops to 5‑10 pips on high‑volatility releases; avoid holding positions through Fed minutes unless the narrative is clear.

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