In the sun-baked fields of Soke, farmer Mehmet Kabak is betting his future on wheat and sunflowers, not cotton.
The 59-year-old, who farms 900 decares (220 acres) in drought-prone western Turkey, can no longer afford the water-intensive crop that once anchored his livelihood. His decision reflects a harsh reality unfolding across the nation: farmers are adapting to climate change on their own, as global climate talks stall over who should pay for it.
From Cotton Kingdom to Climate Battleground
Now, its cotton acreage in the Soke region has shriveled by around 60% to around 120,000 decares in 2026, a local farming group said. This isn’t just a story of lost harvests; it’s a portrait of an economy under stress. Agriculture accounts for around 5% of Turkey’s economic output but consumes 79% of its water. Nearly half of that water is lost to inefficient infrastructure and irrigation, the government has said.
The crisis is personal for Kabak. “We had increases in irrigation costs even though our harvest is damaged,” he said, his voice heavy with frustration. “Our input costs increased by 40%, 50%, 60% continuously. Fuel prices did not stop.”
His plight, shared by farmers interviewed by Reuters, is exacerbated by geopolitical shocks. The US-Israeli war with Iran has sent fuel and fertilizer prices soaring, while government support payments have not kept pace with rising costs.
The Water Paradox: A Temporary Reprieve and a Permanent Threat
For Turkish agriculture, water is the oxygen it cannot live without. Last year, the nation suffered the worst drought in over 50 years, with rainfall 27% below the long-term average. While dam levels have recovered to an extent, analysts say the reprieve is likely to be temporary.
The challenge is not just about scarcity, but waste. Existing infrastructure is inefficient. This forces farmers into a painful dilemma: invest in costly new technology and risk an initial drop in yield, or stick with inefficient methods that guarantee long-term decline. Many, especially those who work on rented land, are reluctant to invest, industry representatives said.
Who Pays for Survival? The State, Banks, and a Gap That Remains
Turkey’s government is changing its policy as pressure mounts.
Some of Turkey’s largest financial institutions have stepped in. Many farmers also have to pay upfront and get reimbursed later, if conditions are met.
For the nation, the cost of inaction is clear.
COP31 and the Test of Concrete Action
As global leaders gather in Antalya for COP31, the world is watching. But for those monitoring progress, the standard of success is clear: not more non-binding pledges, but real money flowing to farms and watersheds.
For decades, countries have argued over who should bear the cost of adapting to a climate crisis. In Turkey, that debate is no longer abstract. It is etched in the dust of Mehmet Kabak’s fields and the tough choices of thousands of farmers.
Their fight is a microcosm of the larger struggle: can the world move beyond rhetoric and deliver the tangible support needed to adapt, before the land itself gives up?
