On October 2, 2018, the Saudi journalist residing in the United States, Jamal Khashoggi, was murdered inside his country’s consulate in the Turkish city of Istanbul. His killing led to the collapse of an already shaky relationship between Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
But three and a half years after the incident, it appears that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are seeking to rebuild the collapsed bridges, move forward with the recovery of relations between the two countries, and “turn the page on Khashoggi,” says the Associated Press.
On his first trip to Saudi Arabia in 5 years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan embraced Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, heralding the beginning of a new page of relations, and indicating an imminent rapprochement between the two Sunni Muslim powers.
What is behind the Turkish diplomatic moves?
Turkey’s diplomatic moves towards the Gulf states coincide with the worst economic crisis in Ankara in two decades.
Turkey seeks to attract foreign investments to the country by strengthening relations with the wealthy Gulf countries and cooperating with them as partners and allies.
Turkey has taken similar steps to improve relations with Egypt and Israel.
After Turkey repaired its relations with the UAE, Abu Dhabi announced the launch of a $10 billion fund to support investments in Turkey and took other steps to support the economy.
With a bad economic situation, Turkey’s official inflation rate reached 61%, while the lira depreciated by 44% against the dollar last year.
These numbers do not bode well for Erdogan, and reveal the extent of Turkey’s economic problems, which may threaten the Turkish president’s grip on power, with the Turkish general elections scheduled for next year approaching.
On the contrary, Saudi Arabia is enjoying a prosperous economic year, with expectations of an increase in the volume of foreign reserves in the Kingdom.
High energy prices are expected to generate more than $400 billion in revenue for the kingdom this year, meaning Riyadh has the capital to invest in Turkey.
Why Saudi Arabia’s position changed?
Saudi Arabia’s change of position with Turkey comes as the kingdom seeks to expand its alliances at a time of strained relations with the United States.
The Saudi crown prince has not yet had a direct call with US President Joe Biden since he took office more than a year ago.
And a number of American Democratic lawmakers called for Biden to be more “tough” with Saudi Arabia.
They described the kingdom as a “bad strategic partner” because it is sticking to an OPEC-led deal with Russia that critics say has exacerbated an oil supply crisis amid the war in Ukraine.
The strongest motive for reconciliation may be that “the crown prince wants to put an end to the Khashoggi murder scandal, which cast a shadow over him and cast a shadow on his reputation.”
Prior to his murder, Khashoggi had been writing columns for the Washington Post praising Mohammed bin Salman’s social reforms while expressing concern about the continued arrests of his critics.
How was Turkey putting pressure on Saudi Arabia?
After Khashoggi’s murder, Turkish authorities shared an audio recording of the horrific killing with Western intelligence services, indicating that the Saudi Consulate was wiretapped and the Saudi journalist was killed.
US intelligence later concluded that the operation would not have taken place without the approval of Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but the crown prince denied any involvement.
Erdogan did not explicitly name Mohammed bin Salman, but said the operation that killed Khashoggi was ordered by “the highest levels” of the Saudi government.
Turkey filed an open case against 26 Saudi suspects, but days before Erdogan arrived in Saudi Arabia, the Turkish public prosecutor suspended the case by referring it to the kingdom.
What happened when the Saudi-Turkish relations tense?
Saudi Arabia launched an unofficial ban on Turkish exports, reducing the volume of bilateral trade between the two countries by about $5 billion.
Riyadh has temporarily banned hugely popular Turkish soap operas that have been dubbed into Arabic from broadcasting on its satellite television stations.
Over the past years, Turkish soap operas have helped enhance Ankara’s cultural influence across the Middle East and have attracted tourism and investment to Turkey.
Prior to Khashoggi’s murder, Saudi investments in Turkey had reached nearly $2 billion.
While Turkey’s investments in Saudi Arabia were estimated at $660 million.
More than 200 Turkish companies were operating in Saudi Arabia, according to the Turkish Foreign Ministry.
Saudi citizens bought more than 3,500 properties in Turkey, a year before Khashoggi was murdered, specifically in 2017.
What are the repercussions of the return of the Saudi-Turkish rapprochement?
For now, Iran is the biggest concern for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, at a time when Tehran is slowly moving toward a nuclear deal with the United States that could lift major sanctions.
Over the past years, Turkey and Iran, although they are not rivals, have competed to seize power in Syria and Iraq, although they maintain strong economic relations.
Turkey’s close alliance with the Gulf states may increase pressure on Iran.
A detente could defuse tensions in Libya, which has seen a proxy war between Turkey and the UAE.
The rapprochement could also ease the diplomatic isolation that Turkey has faced from some Western countries.
But according to the Associated Press, mistrust will almost certainly re-emerge between Erdogan and Mohammed bin Salman.