1. Weather
1. Domestic situation
Typhoon “Mulan” affects the coastal areas of South China: from 08:00 yesterday to 06:00 today, due to the influence of typhoon “Mulan”, there were heavy to heavy rains in parts of southern Guangdong, western and northern Hainan Island, and Yangjiang, Jiangmen, Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Shenzhen in Guangdong. and other local heavy rainstorms (100-179 mm); gusts of magnitude 8 to 9 occurred along the coast of Guangdong, the northeastern coast of Hainan Island, and the Dongsha and Xisha Islands, with gusts of magnitude 10 to 11 locally.
Heavy rainfall occurred in Shandong, Shanxi, Ningxia, Sichuan and other places: heavy rain or heavy rain occurred in parts of central and eastern Shandong, southern Hebei, central Shanxi, northern Shaanxi, central Ningxia, northeastern Qinghai, central Sichuan, central and western Yunnan, and northwestern Hubei. Local heavy rains (100-210 mm) occurred in Weifang and Zibo in Shandong, Luliang in Shanxi, Yulin in Shaanxi, Yinchuan in Ningxia, and Aba Prefecture in Sichuan. In addition, high temperature weather continued in southern Huanghuai, Sichuan Basin, Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan and central and southern Shaanxi, southern Shaanxi, southern Henan, central and southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, central and northern Zhejiang, northern Jiangxi, central and northern Hunan, Hubei, Some areas in Chongqing, eastern Sichuan and other places are 38-40°C, and local areas in Chongqing are 41-42.9°C.
2. Live abroad
Strong precipitation occurred in eastern India, Russia and other places: moderate to heavy rain occurred in Indian Peninsula, Indo-China Peninsula, central and southern Philippine Islands, eastern Russia, western Labrador Peninsula, western coastal areas of the United States, and central and southern Brazil. Heavy rain, accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
High temperatures continued in West Asia, North Africa, central and southern America and other places: West Asia, North Africa, Western Europe, western southern Europe, the United States, northern Mexico, central Brazil and other places experienced high temperature weather. Among them, the central and southern United States, Spain, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Arabian Peninsula, Iran The daily maximum temperature in other places reaches 38 to 42 °C, and the local temperature exceeds 46 °C.
Second, the key weather forecast
1. Domestic key weather
(1) Typhoon “Mulan” affects South China and southern waters
Affected by typhoon “Mulan”, in the next three days, there will be heavy rain or heavy rain in parts of Guangdong, Hainan Island, central and southern Guangxi, southern Yunnan and other places successively, and there will be heavy rain locally; there will be 6 heavy rains in the central and northern South China Sea, Beibu Gulf, and Qiongzhou Strait. ~7 winds, among which the wind force in the nearby sea area where the typhoon center passes can reach 8~9 levels and gusts 10~11 levels.
The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a typhoon yellow warning at 06:00 on August 10: The center of this year’s No. 7 typhoon “Mulan” is located on the offshore sea about 220 kilometers southeast of Xuwen, Guangdong at 5:00 this morning (10th), which is 18.9 degrees north latitude, The east longitude is 111.6 degrees, the maximum wind force is 9 (23 m/s), and the central minimum pressure is 992 hPa.
It is expected that “Mulan” will move to the northwest and westward at a speed of 20-25 kilometers per hour, with little change or a slight increase in intensity. Today, it will land on the coast from Qionghai, Hainan to Maoming, Guangdong during the day (level 8-10, Tropical Storm or Severe Tropical Storm) (see Figure 1). From 08:00 on August 10 to 08:00 on August 11, most of the South China Sea, Qiongzhou Strait, Beibu Gulf and the coast of Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan Island, and the waters near the Nansha Islands, the Xisha Islands, and the Zhongsha Islands will be closed. There are winds of magnitude 6-7, and winds of magnitude 8-9 and gusts of magnitude 10-11 in the northern waters of the South China Sea, the eastern part of Beibu Gulf, the eastern and northern coasts of Hainan Island, and the coastal areas of central and western Guangdong. Level 12.
Figure 1 This year’s No. 7 typhoon “Mulan” path probability forecast map for the next 36 hours (05:00 on August 10th – 17:00 on August 11th)
The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a blue rainstorm warning at 06:00 on August 10: It is expected that from 08:00 on August 10 to 08:00 on the 11th, southern Guangdong, Hainan Island, southern Guangxi and northern Shaanxi, central Shanxi, southern Hebei, and central and eastern Shandong There are heavy rains or heavy rains in other places. Among them, there are heavy rains (100-220 mm) in parts of southern and western Guangdong and northwestern Hainan Island. Some of the above-mentioned areas are accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation (the maximum hourly rainfall is 30-50 mm, and the local area can exceed 60 mm), and there are local strong convective weather such as thunderstorms, strong winds or hail (see Figure 2).
Figure 2 Forecast map of heavy rainfall areas across the country (08:00 on August 10th – 08:00 on August 11th)
From the 13th to the 15th, there were rainy weather in eastern Northwest China, North China, Huanghuai and Northeast China. Among them, there were moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains in eastern Qinghai, central and northern Hebei, Liaoning, Jilin, and Shandong.
Around the 17th, there will be a significant rainfall process in the eastern part of the Northwest, North China, Huanghuai and other places.
(2) There are persistent high temperatures in Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan and other places
In the next 10 days, Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, Sichuan Basin, Southern Xinjiang Basin and other places will continue to have high temperature weather, and there will be periods of high temperature weather in southern Shaanxi, Henan, Shandong and other places, and the highest temperature in some of the above areas can reach 37 ~ 39 ℃ , local 40 ℃ or above.
It is estimated that during the daytime on August 10, there will be 35 people in the southern Xinjiang Basin, central and southern Shaanxi, southern Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, central and eastern Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, northern Guangxi, and eastern Guizhou. High temperature weather of ~39°C, among which, the local temperature can reach 40°C or above in southeastern Shaanxi, western and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, eastern Sichuan, central and western Chongqing, southern Jiangsu, and western Zhejiang (see Figure 3). The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue an orange high temperature warning at 06:00 on August 10.
Figure 3 National high temperature forecast map (08:00-20:00 on August 10)
2. Foreign key weather
(1) Continued high temperature in Western Europe, South Europe, West Asia and other places
In the next three days, high temperatures above 35°C will continue in central and southern West Asia, North Africa, northern West Africa, southern Western Europe, western southern Europe, central and southern America, northern Mexico, and central Brazil. The daily maximum temperature in the region exceeds 45°C.
(2) There is strong precipitation in northern India, the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-China Peninsula
In the next three days, parts of western and northern India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, North Korea, and central and northern Japan will experience heavy rains, local heavy rains, and strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
3. Specific forecast for the next three days
From 08:00 on August 10 to 08:00 on August 11, the Ili River Valley in Xinjiang and the vicinity of the Tianshan Mountains, eastern Qinghai, central Ningxia, northern Shaanxi, central and northern Shanxi, southern Hebei, most of Shandong, central and southern Guangdong, Hainan Island, and central and southern Guangxi. There are moderate to heavy rains in other places. Among them, there are heavy rains or heavy rains (100-220 mm) in parts of northern Shaanxi, central Shanxi, southern Hebei, western Shandong Peninsula, southern Guangdong, western Hainan Island, and southern Guangxi. There are winds of magnitude 4 to 6 in parts of western Gansu, eastern Inner Mongolia, southern Guangdong, southern Guangxi, and Hainan Island, and gusts of magnitude 7 to 8 in coastal areas (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on August 10th – 08:00 on August 11th)
From 08:00 on August 11 to 08:00 on the 12th, there were moderate to heavy rains in parts of central and eastern Shandong, central and southern Guangdong, southern Guangxi, and southern Yunnan. Among them, there were local heavy rains in the coastal areas of southern Guangxi and southwestern Yunnan. (50 to 90 mm). There are winds of magnitude 4 to 6 in parts of the southern Xinjiang Basin, among which the winds in the mountain pass area can reach magnitude 7 to 8 (see Figure 5).
Figure 5 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on August 11th – 08:00 on August 12th)
From 08:00 on August 12 to 08:00 on August 13, there were moderate to heavy rains in parts of Xinjiang along the Tianshan Mountains, western Gansu, northern Shandong, central and southern Guangdong, southern Guangxi, and southern Yunnan. There is heavy rain (50-70 mm). There are winds of magnitude 4 to 6 in parts of northwestern Inner Mongolia, Hexi, Gansu and other places. Among them, there are winds of magnitude 7 to 8 in parts of eastern Xinjiang (see Figure 6).
Figure 6 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on August 12th – 08:00 on August 13th)
4. Influence and Concern
1. The wind and rain impact of Typhoon No. 7 “Mulan” on the coast of South China and the waters of the South China Sea, pay attention to local geological disasters, floods and waterlogging of small and medium rivers, etc.;
2. Secondary disasters that may be caused by strong rainfall processes and local strong convective weather in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other places;
3. The adverse effects of continuous high temperature weather in Sichuan Basin, Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, Xinjiang and other places on energy supply, human health, agricultural production, etc.
Produced by: Yang Shunan, Yu Chao, Zhou Ningfang, Liu Lu Signed: Ma Xue Fund
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责编：杨煜 ]