2023-10-12 07:00:00
2023/10/12 16:00 Weather News
As of 3:00 PM on October 12th (Thursday), Typhoon No. 15 (Bolaven), which is large and extremely powerful, is moving north-northeast in the waters near Ogasawara.
The central pressure is expected to be 900 hPa, and the maximum wind speed near the center is expected to reach 60 m/s, and it is expected to maintain its fierce strength tomorrow, the 13th (Friday).
▼Typhoon No.15 October 12th (Thursday) 15:00
Center location: Near Ogasawara
Size class large
strength class ferocious
Moving NNE 25 km/h
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed 60 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 85 m/s
» Latest typhoon information
Be careful of strong winds and high waves in Ogasawara tomorrow
Forecast course of Typhoon No.15
The typhoon gradually changes its course to the east, moving several hundred kilometers away from the Ogasawara Islands. It is accompanied by a large area of strong winds with a diameter of 1000 km, and the Ogasawara Islands are expected to be included in it.This is an area of strong winds extending to the northwest of the typhoon, and strong winds of 20 to 30 m/s are expected to occur tomorrow, the 13th (Friday).
In addition, waves are expected to be over 6 meters high in the waters near Ogasawara. Please be careful of strong winds and high waves.
After that, it is expected to increase speed and move northeast, turning into an extratropical cyclone over the ocean far east of Japan.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)
Reference Results of course simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world
Each thin line in this diagram represents the result of a simulation of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These members are obtained through the process of ensemble forecasting, and are shown here to give you an idea of the wide range of possible paths.
Comparing these members, it can be seen that after moving northwest near the Mariana Islands, they tend to turn around near Ogasawara and move northeast, and the variation in course predictions is relatively small.
Although the error is small, we must not be complacent, as even the slightest deviation can greatly change the impact on the Ogasawara Islands.
Probability of entering the storm area of a typhoon
The following are the prefectural forecast areas where the probability of entering the typhoon’s storm region within the next 5 days is 3% or higher. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Amami region 24%
Okinawa main island region
Northern/central southern main island 27%
Kerama/Aguni Islands 29%
Kumejima 27%
Dadongdo Island 9%
Miyakojima region 23%
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island region 18%
Yonagunijima region 11%
First typhoon in October
This is the first typhoon in about a week since Typhoon Koinu, which formed at the end of September and was moving westward in the South China Sea. This is the first typhoon to occur in October.
The average number of typhoons in October is 3.4, which tends to be less than in the summer, but September to October is a time when many typhoons approach and land in the Honshu area, so we cannot be complacent.
It is possible that typhoons that will affect the Japanese archipelago will occur in the future, so please do not relax your measures against typhoons and heavy rain.
» Radar satellite cloud image mode
typhoon name
There are 140 typhoon names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Commission,” and they are assigned in the order of their occurrence.
The name of Typhoon No. 15, Bolaven, was proposed by Laos and is taken from the name of a plateau in southern Laos.
» Radar typhoon mode
Reference materials etc.
Meteorological satellite visible images: NICT-National Institute of Information and Communications Technology
1697098595
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