The Washington Post reported that classified U.S. government documents leaked to social media contained U.S. intelligence assessments showing that Ukraine’s challenges in amassing troops, ammunition and equipment could put the Ukrainian military “far short of what” Kiev authorities were aiming for. The original goal set by the anticipatory counteroffensive was to recapture Russian-occupied territories this spring.
A dismal assessment in early February, marked “top secret,” warned of a serious “combat generation and sustainment shortfall,” and the possibility that such an operation would yield only “limited territorial gains,” according to the report. A stark departure from the Biden administration’s public rhetoric about the dynamism of the Ukrainian military has the potential to mobilize critics who argue that the U.S. and NATO should do more together to advance a negotiated settlement to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The impending Ukrainian counteroffensive showed Kiev’s strategy centered around retaking disputed areas in the east while pushing south to cut off Russia’s land bridge to the Crimea peninsula, the report said. However, the U.S. assessment document predicts limited success for Ukrainian forces, saying the effectiveness of Russia’s entrenched fortifications, combined with “continued shortages of Ukrainian training and ammunition supplies, will likely limit advances and exacerbate casualties during the offensive.”
According to reports, the document flagging Washington’s misgivings about the state of the Russia-Ukraine war showed that the relevant information was provided by human and signals intelligence, which may involve sensitive methods used by the CIA and NSA. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which appears to have authored the leaked documents, declined to comment. The White House National Security Council also declined to comment, and the Pentagon declined to mention the contents of the document.
further reading