2023-11-03 15:00:00
The rise in the US unemployment rate to 3.9% in October means that the so-called “Sahm Rule” criteria is on the verge of being met. This rule has proven to be a reliable predictor of recessions.
U.S. employment growth slows more than expected, slowing in a wide range of industries – unemployment rate rises
The rule was created by Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist and current Bloomberg columnist. A recession is said to begin when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by more than half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past 12 months.
The lowest unemployment rate this year is 3.4%. The unemployment rate in October was the highest level this year, with August and September each at 3.8%. The three-month moving average is just below the 3.9% where the therm rule is triggered.
Sahm, who is also the founder of Sahm Consulting, said in an interview in August that what he had created wasmonster”, he said, adding that he was concerned that the situation may have become “.” “It would be better if we met the standards and there was no recession,” she said.
Original title:US Unemployment Rise on Verge of Triggering Sahm Recession Rule(excerpt)
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