The homeless population in the U.S. dropped more than 6% in 2025, according to an annual count in communities around the country cited by npr.org. That drop amounts to roughly 49,000 fewer people without housing. It stands as the second year of decline, following a smaller decrease recorded in 2024.
Federal officials and policy advocates offer starkly contrasting explanations for what drove the shift. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner credited administration policies targeting the border and public safety for the downturn. President Trump’s actions to secure the border, get criminal illegals off our streets, and restore safety to our communities drove a historic decrease in homelessness,
Turner said in a press release announcing the results.
A second independent analysis, commissioned by the advocacy group National Alliance to End Homelessness and based on the same count, found a similar decline but pointed to entirely different mechanisms. Ann Oliva, CEO of the alliance, emphasized the efficacy of existing federal programs. It’s good news that more people are getting housed, and that the programs that are funded by Congress are working,
Oliva said.
Diverging Views on Federal Housing Strategy and Enforcement
Both analyses confirm that nearly 700,000 people in the U.S. still live in shelters or on the streets, leaving the total significantly higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic. The Trump administration points to changes in immigration policy as a primary catalyst for the improvement. During the Biden administration, cities including New York, Chicago, Boston, and Denver experienced a sharp surge in asylum seekers turning to local homeless shelters for relief.
Devon Kurtz, public safety policy director at the Cicero Institute, noted that those exact four metropolitan areas drove half of the recent national drop. Kurtz also highlighted downward trends in cities such as San Francisco, which began moving toward sober-living options that ban drugs and alcohol. Critics argue that strict sobriety requirements risk pushing relapsing individuals back onto the streets, given that relapse remains common. Conversely, the administration maintains that drug-free mandates foster recovery and plans to expand such programming.
The White House seeks to overhaul billions of dollars in federal homelessness spending by shifting resources toward short-term housing tied to mandatory addiction and mental health treatment. Federal courts have thus far blocked those proposed overhauls. The administration argues that longstanding policies prioritizing permanent housing before requiring voluntary treatment have failed and fueled the pandemic-era spike.
Veteran Housing Gains Contrast with Chronic Homelessness Trends
Oliva countered that programs removing people from the street without preconditions served as a major engine for the latest declines, particularly among military veterans. Investments in programs like that are much closer to the scale of need for veterans than for any other population experiencing homelessness,
she said. Homelessness among U.S. veterans dropped more than 7% last year, bringing the total reduction to nearly 60% since 2010.
Yet the broader data reveals persistent vulnerabilities. Unlike groups that saw notable reductions, individuals experiencing chronic homelessness—those unhoused for long periods who often suffer from severe mental health issues and addiction—experienced a slight uptick last year. Housing and Urban Development officials also credited a federal crackdown on public encampments following a 2024 Supreme Court ruling affirming that cities can ban sleeping and camping in public spaces.
Oliva noted that the independent analysis commissioned by her group showed cities enforcing public camping bans actually performed worse than the national average. Beyond policy shifts and enforcement actions, the broader decline likely stems from a combination of economic factors, including softening rental markets in select regions. While rents remain high, they have retreated from pandemic-era peaks, potentially stemming the influx of newly unhoused individuals. Additional declines materialized in areas impacted by major weather disasters, such as western North Carolina and Hawaii, where emergency interventions connected displaced residents with unprecedented support.
