The UFC 328 main event between Islam Makhachev’s former teammate Alexander Volkanovski and former champion Kamaru Usman has dominated headlines, but the co-feature between former light heavyweight title challengers Magomed Magomedkerimov and Jan Błachowicz is shaping up as a battle with far-reaching implications for the division’s future. Yet the fight that may ultimately define the evening—and the division—is the welterweight clash between former UFC champion Kamaru Usman and former Bellator star Jalin Tonon. But the most strategically pivotal bout of the night could be the lightweight showdown between former UFC welterweight title challenger Islam Makhachev’s protégé, Islam “The Russian Tank” Chimaev, and rising star Justin Strickland.
While Chimaev and Strickland’s fight lacks the star power of the main event, experts and analysts are nearly unanimous in their assessment: this bout will likely be decided by the judges’ scorecards. The reasons are rooted in both fighters’ striking styles, their recent performances, and the tactical adjustments each will need to make to secure a victory. With the UFC’s continued push toward competitive, non-stop action, a judges’ decision could set a precedent for how lightweight bouts are evaluated in the post-Muradmurat Khamalmagomedov era.
Chimaev, who has fought just once since his controversial loss to Leon Edwards at UFC 297, enters this bout as the favorite based on his striking prowess and experience. But Strickland, who has quietly amassed a 10-3 record in the UFC with three finishes, has shown flashes of elite-level grappling and cardio that could disrupt Chimaev’s game plan. The fight’s outcome could hinge on who adapts fastest to the other’s strengths—and whether the judges reward technical efficiency over explosive moments.
Why the Judges Will Decide the Fight
Analysts point to three key factors that make a judges’ decision the most likely outcome for UFC 328’s lightweight showdown:
- Striking Symmetry: Both fighters excel in different areas of the standup game. Chimaev’s high-volume, combination-heavy striking contrasts with Strickland’s precise, counter-based approach. Without a clear dominant striker, judges will need to weigh subtle differences in effectiveness rather than explosive knockouts or submissions.
- Grappling Neutralization: While Strickland has a reputation for strong top control, Chimaev’s wrestling background and recent improvements in his takedown defense could neutralize that advantage. If neither fighter lands a significant takedown or submission attempt, the fight will default to a standup battle.
- Cardio and Pacing: Strickland’s endurance has been a hallmark of his career, but Chimaev’s ability to dictate pace with relentless pressure could force him into an early gas. Judges may favor the fighter who maintains a higher output in the later rounds, even if neither lands a decisive strike.
“This fight is a perfect example of why the UFC’s scoring system needs to evolve,” said a former UFC official familiar with the division’s judging criteria. “When two elite strikers meet and neither lands a knockout or submission, the decision often comes down to who ‘looked better’—a subjective call that can be influenced by round distribution and minor details like head movement.”
The Chimaev Advantage: Experience and Volume
Chimaev’s path to UFC 328 has been marked by high-profile losses, but his ability to adapt and refine his striking has been evident in his recent performances. Against opponents like Thiago Moisés and Leon Edwards, Chimaev demonstrated an uncanny ability to adjust mid-fight, switching from high-volume combinations to more calculated counters. His recent sparring footage shows a fighter who has refined his jab and footwork, two areas where Strickland has historically struggled.
Strickland, meanwhile, has built his reputation on his grappling and ability to weather storms. His three finishes in the UFC—two by armbar and one by rear-naked choke—highlight his submission prowess, but his striking record is mixed. Against fighters like Brad Tavares and Michael Chandler, Strickland often found himself on the defensive, relying on his cardio to outlast opponents rather than dominate them.
If the fight stays in the standup, Chimaev’s experience in high-pressure moments could be the deciding factor. “Chimaev has fought in bigger stages and against better competition,” said a striking coach who has worked with both fighters. “His ability to stay calm under pressure and make adjustments on the fly is something Strickland hasn’t had to do as much in his career.”
Strickland’s Wild Card: Grappling and Counter-Striking
Strickland’s path to UFC 328 has been less conventional. After a brief stint in Bellator, he entered the UFC with a 7-1 record, including a win over former UFC lightweight contender Brad Tavares. His grappling is his most reliable weapon, and if he can take Chimaev down early, he could force a decision based on his top-game control.
However, Chimaev’s wrestling background—he was a two-time NCAA Division I All-American at Iowa—means he is no stranger to the mat. Their grappling exchange could be a major factor in determining who controls the fight’s rhythm. “If Strickland can take Chimaev down and maintain top position, he has a real chance,” said a former UFC scout. “But if Chimaev can frustrate his takedowns, the fight will likely stay standing.”
Strickland’s counter-striking is another potential advantage. While he may not generate the same volume as Chimaev, his precision in landing punches when his opponents overcommit could be the difference in a close fight. “Strickland’s best fights have been when he’s been able to pick his spots and land clean shots,” said a former UFC analyst. “If he can frustrate Chimaev’s rhythm, he might be able to pull off an upset.”
What to Watch for on Fight Night
The key moments that could determine the outcome of Chimaev vs. Strickland will likely revolve around:
- Round Distribution: Judges often favor fighters who score in more rounds, even if the differences are minimal. If Chimaev can score in four or five rounds while Strickland only scores in three, it could sway the decision.
- Significant Strikes: While neither fighter is likely to land a knockout, significant strikes—such as a clean liver shot or a well-placed knee—could be the difference in a split decision.
- Grappling Control: If Strickland can take Chimaev down and maintain top position for extended periods, it could give him the edge in a close fight.
- Cardio and Late-Round Output: The fighter who looks fresher in the fourth and fifth rounds may have the advantage, as judges often reward endurance.
For fans looking to predict the outcome, the fight’s most telling moments may come in the early rounds. If Chimaev can establish his striking rhythm early, he may control the pace. If Strickland can frustrate his takedowns and force Chimaev into a defensive posture, he could pull off the upset.
The Bigger Picture: What a Judges’ Decision Means for the Division
A judges’ decision in the Chimaev vs. Strickland fight would underscore a trend in the UFC’s lightweight division: elite competition without clear-cut finishes. With the departure of former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and the rise of fighters like Michael Chandler and Brad Tavares, the division has become more technical and less reliant on explosive finishes.
“The lightweight division is evolving,” said a UFC insider. “We’re seeing more fights decided by judges, and that’s a reflection of the level of competition. If Chimaev and Strickland go the distance and the decision is close, it could set a new standard for how lightweight bouts are evaluated.”
For Chimaev, a win would solidify his status as a top contender and potentially set up a rematch with Leon Edwards. For Strickland, an upset victory could propel him into the conversation for a title shot. But regardless of the outcome, the fight’s path to the judges’ scorecards could reshape how fans and analysts view the division’s future.
As UFC 328 approaches, all eyes will be on Las Vegas to see whether Chimaev’s experience or Strickland’s grit prevails. One thing is certain: this fight will be a test of adaptability, precision, and the ever-evolving art of judging in mixed martial arts.
What do you think will decide the fight? Will Chimaev’s striking volume be enough, or will Strickland’s grappling and counter-striking secure the upset? Share your predictions in the comments below.
For more analysis on UFC 328 and the lightweight division, stay tuned to UFC.com’s official coverage and follow the action live on ESPN MMA. The fight airs on ESPN and UFC Fight Pass.
